Nigeria’s IDA Debt Falls $200m Q1, Rises 6.9% Year‑on‑year – World Bank

The World Bank said Nigeria’s exposure to its concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), fell by $200 million in the first quarter of 2026 but rose by 6.9 per cent compared with a year earlier.

Data from the IDA’s latest March 2026 financial statements showed that Nigeria’s exposure fell to $18.5 billion as of March 31, 2026, from $18.7 billion at the end of December 2025, representing a decline of $200 million or 1.1 per cent over the three-month period.

However, on a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s debt exposure increased by $1.2 billion, or 6.9 per cent from $17.3 billion recorded in March 2025, showing the country’s continued dependence on concessional financing from the World Bank.

The bank said the quarter‑on‑quarter decline showed a modest easing in Nigeria’s short‑term use of concessional finance, but that the year‑on‑year increase reflected the country’s continued reliance on IDA resources to support development programmes.

The IDA reported that Nigeria remained its third‑largest borrower as of March 31, 2026, trailing only Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The IDA said Bangladesh remained its largest borrower with an exposure of $22.7 billion as of March 2026, followed by Pakistan at $19.2 billion, and then Nigeria at $18.5 billion. The institution added that Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya followed with exposures of $14.4 billion, $14.3 billion and $13.2 billion respectively.

The bank said total loans outstanding at the IDA were $230.8 billion as of March 31, 2026, slightly below the $231.1 billion recorded at the end of December 2025, signalling a modest moderation in its lending portfolio.

The IDA noted that loans in non-accrual status accounted for only 0.4% of the portfolio, and that accumulated provisions for potential loan losses amounted to $6.3 billion, equivalent to 2.0% of underlying exposures.

Concentration among top borrowers

The IDA said Nigeria’s exposure represented about 8.0% of the $230.8 billion loan portfolio and roughly 13.3% of the $139.6 billion exposure attributable to the institution’s ten largest borrowing countries. The lender warned that its ten largest country exposures accounted for 60% of total portfolio exposure as of March 31, 2026, underscoring concentration of lending among a small group of countries.

The IDA reported that several other countries also increased their use of concessional financing during the year. It said Ethiopia’s exposure rose from $13.2 billion to $14.4 billion, Tanzania’s from $12.6 billion to $14.3 billion, Bangladesh’s from $21.2 billion to $22.7 billion, and Pakistan’s from $18.3 billion to $19.2 billion. The institution added that Ghana and other borrowers also recorded increases.

The World Bank said total loans outstanding at the IDA were $230.8 billion on March 31, 2026, slightly below $231.1 billion at end‑December 2025, signalling a small moderation in overall lending. The institution noted that loans in non‑accrual status represented only 0.4 per cent of the portfolio and that accumulated provisions for potential loan losses totalled $6.3 billion, equal to about 2.0 per cent of underlying exposures.

The IDA told reporters that Nigeria’s $18.5 billion exposure accounted for about 8.0 per cent of the $230.8 billion portfolio, and roughly 13.3 per cent of the $139.6 billion exposure represented by the institution’s ten largest borrowing countries. The bank warned that the top ten country exposures together made up 60 per cent of total IDA exposure, underlining concentration risk.

The IDA said several other countries also increased their use of concessional financing over the year. It reported that Ethiopia’s exposure rose from $13.2 billion to $14.4 billion, Tanzania’s from $12.6 billion to $14.3 billion, Bangladesh’s from $21.2 billion to $22.7 billion, and Pakistan’s from $18.3 billion to $19.2 billion.

The lender added that Ghana and other borrowers recorded smaller rises.

Recall that the  Debt Management Office (DMO) on April 15 released Nigeria’s total public debt for federal and state governments, which reached N159.27 trillion at end‑Q4 2025, up from N153.29 trillion at end‑Q3.

The DMO said public debt rose by N5.98 trillion in the quarter.

The federal government also requested approval for $6 billion in external loans.

Some analysts quoted in response said the IDA’s quarterly dip could signal a short‑term slowdown in new concessional commitments, but that the year‑on‑year increase confirmed Nigeria’s ongoing dependence on low‑cost external finance.

Others warned that the concentration of IDA lending among a few large borrowers could increase portfolio vulnerability if any of those countries encountered payment difficulties.