Nigeria’s Population Tripled Without Corresponding Economic Expansion Since Shagari Era -Duke

Nigeria’s population tripled without corresponding economic expansion since Shagari era -Duke

Former Cross River state governor and presidential candidate of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has said Nigeria’s economy has effectively shrunk since the Second Republic because government spending and productive capacity have failed to grow in line with the country’s population.

Duke said Nigeria was still operating around the same dollar-denominated budget recorded under former President Shehu Shagari more than four decades ago, despite its population increasing from about 76 million to an estimated 230 million.

Speaking to journalists in Abuja, he blamed the country’s worsening cost-of-living crisis on decades of neglect of productivity.

“I think we got it wrong from independence, but as the years go by, the effects become stark. We have not addressed the issue of productivity,” he said.

Duke said Shagari’s administration operated an average annual budget of about $25 billion between 1979 and 1983, when Nigeria’s population was approximately one-third of its present size.

“Today, our population, they say, is about 230 million people. We are still spending the same $25 billion that Shagari spent 46 years ago,” he said.

“All these trillions and trillions, by the time you convert them, you come down to the same thing.

“In essence, the economy has not grown. In fact, it has shrunk because $25 billion in 1979 or 1980 is not the same as $25 billion today.”

He said the consequences could be seen in widespread poverty, unemployment, insecurity and the desperation of millions of Nigerians struggling to survive.

He added that the primary responsibility of government is to create conditions that allow citizens to be productive within a secure and orderly society.

“The essence of government is to ensure the utmost productivity of citizens within a safe and orderly environment. That is why you need security. That is why you have the judiciary. If Nigeria were to be safe and orderly and the people were productive, nobody would care whether you came from Sokoto, Calabar or somewhere else,” Duke said.

The former governor also questioned the economic justification and timing of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, saying the government should have considered more urgent social and infrastructure needs.

“We woke up one morning and said we wanted to build a road from Lagos to Calabar. What are the economics? How many communities will it go through?

“A road is commuting infrastructure between communities. There are existing roads. What happens to those roads? What happens to the East-West Road that we have been talking about?,” Duke asked.

Duke said he would personally benefit from the coastal highway because of his connections to Lagos and Calabar, but insisted that public expenditure must be determined by national priorities and measurable economic value.

“I would be the happiest person because I live in Lagos and Calabar. I would be going back and forth,” he said.

“But even if it were the best road, with a sea view as you are going to Calabar, what is the economics of it? What is the opportunity cost?

“Maybe you can say we will do it in 10 years when we can afford it. We cannot afford it now. There are higher priorities.”

He cited the number of children outside the school system and the growing population of poor Nigerians as areas demanding more urgent government intervention.

“We have the largest number of out-of-school children in the world. We have one of the largest populations of poor people, and you are building a fancy road from Victoria Island to Calabar,” Duke said.

“It does not work like that. All I am asking is that we should be honest with our people.”

He argued that deprivation, rather than inherent ethnic or religious intolerance, was responsible for many of Nigeria’s social divisions.

According to him, citizens resort to ethnic, religious and regional affiliations when they believe such connections will give them access to scarce opportunities.

“I don’t believe that we are naturally tribalistic or ethnic. We use those things because they are advantageous to us,” he said.

“We want a president or governor from our locality because we think it will give us an added advantage. But if you are getting what you need without that advantage, who cares where the governor comes from?

“When you go to a hospital, you don’t ask for a doctor from your village. You ask for the doctor who can cure you.”

Duke said Nigeria required a collective national vision capable of aligning public spending, infrastructure, education and economic policy with the goal of raising productivity.

“Where are we taking this country? We don’t have a vision. We just wake up and do whatever appears important at the moment,” he said.

“The real task is to make our people productive. When inadequacy persists because we are not productive, we begin to exploit tribal and religious sentiments to get what we want.”