The defection of two governors, Peter Mbah of Enugu and Douye Diri of Bayelsa, this week, dispelled all doubts that Nigerians may not conduct a presidential election, but rather a referendum in 2027 to decide on the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
As of now, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a party that once boasted that it would rule Nigeria for 60 years before it was forced to eat humble pie in 2015, has been effectively demobilised and is now in charge of only eight states out of 36 states of the Federation.
Even so, Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba, and his Bauchi counterpart, Sen. Bala Mohammed, are set to become late birds into the nest of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The other two governors of the South-west, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, and Ademola Adeleke of Osun, are only playing the ostrich.
While Adeleke has declared support for Tinubu’s re-election, Makinde’s insistence on going ahead with the PDP National Convention amidst legal fireworks could turn out to be an exercise in futility. The once biggest political movement in South of the Sahara seems to be walking to its grave.
A Doom Foretold
Those who once thought no force was capable of driving them out of the house they built are now swallowing their words. Some of them who relocated to new shelters continue to accuse Tinubu of deploying forces to weaken politics.
It all seems a great paradox that someone whose politics is deeply enmeshed in playing the opposition has witnessed the gradual transformation of Nigeria’s multi-party system into a one-party state. The dilemma of the PDP did not just happen to them; the party called for the rains, and they were quickly drenched in their own self-inflicted iniquities.
Understanding the present state of the PDP is not possible without carefully taking into consideration the role of the current FCT Minister, Barr Nyesom Wike. He was not only pained by the teeth of betrayal that truncated his presidential ambition in Port Harcourt, during the convention of the party; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a serial presidential contestant of 30 years, then, treated the then Rivers helmsman with contempt.
Against recommendations, comprising governors and critical stakeholders, that Wike be nominated as Atiku’s running mate, the former vice president spared no effort to convince all on why he preferred to have Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta state as his running mate, rather than Wike as recommended by the party.
Wike Unshaken
Determined to confront the betrayal unleashed on him by someone he took for a friend, Wike vowed to have his pound of flesh. Instead of caving in to pressure for reconciliation, the presidential aspirant declared he would rather die than accept being treated as a second-class citizen.
Two years after the inauguration of the Tinubu-led presidency, the minister has become a strong rock that has refused to be moved. The gale of defections has thrown opposition parties down the valley of political irrelevance, with opposition elements only engaging in providing content on social media platforms.
Those desperate to secure a place in the next political dispensation are uncertain of what the future holds for them. That explains why members of the ruling class now join the ‘On Your Mandate We Shall Stand’ anthem in identifying with the winning party, many believe can’t be defeated in either the present or the future.
With some PDP governors still playing Nicodemus to cut deals, the bell, for now, tolls for the party. This week on Tuesday, Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna state was at the House of Representatives to welcome defectors, mainly from the PDP Kaduna south zone, a place once reputed as an altar of the former ruling party.
Already, planned defections set for the coming months are clear pointers that the boat of opposition politics has been torpedoed when it’s mostly needed. Those who assumed that Wike was soft meat to be crushed easily have been proven wrong, as those who accused him of undermining the PDP by supporting the APC are not sparing any effort to promote the Tinubu government.
Those involved in comparing the present with the past are quick to state that former President Goodluck Jonathan had the support of governors but still lost the 2015 election.
Referendum Or Election?
As it is, barring any unforeseen event, the re-election of the incumbent is irreversible. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should consider the option of conducting a plebiscite on Tinubu’s comeback bid.
Turning the tables against Tinubu cannot be achieved by men whose sole purpose is to simply wrest power without any new game in changing the system. It’s doubtful if those who are aspiring for regime change in 2027 can perform better than the man who declared in 2022 that his presidential dream had been his lifelong ambition.
It’s clear now that the PDP has become a stronghold of the APC. If the PDP governors are fleeing the party, what benefits for citizens who have remained victims of bad politics?
Wike has become the albatross of the former ruling party that has refused to cleanse itself of its manifold crippling iniquities. The survival of the main opposition party now hangs in the cross, with dimming prospects for rejuvenation.
