The former presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Prince Adewale Adebayo, has said that President Bola Tinubu has recorded some financial gains compared to his predecessor, former President Muhammadu Buhari, particularly in revenue generation and balance sheet management.
Adebayo, who featured on Channels Television’s ‘Politics Today’ on Tuesday night, however, warned that the Tinubu administration was yet to properly diagnose Nigeria’s economic ailments despite taking steps that have stabilised the situation.
“It’s obvious that the economy that President Buhari left was poorly managed. It was an emergency rule patient and the only way of recovery is good diagnosis by the doctor. So if the doctor knows why you are ill, he’d be able to put you in a solid path to recovery,” Adebayo said.
He likened Tinubu’s handling of the economy to a doctor who had only stabilised a sick patient but had not found the cure.
“What President Tinubu has done is to stabilise the patient, but I’m not so sure that he has managed to know the ailment. So, the patient is not going to die imminently, but he hasn’t been able to find a cure. He hasn’t identified what is wrong with the patient. But as an emergency rule doctor, he is taking some steps, some of which have aggravated the condition of the patient. Over time, he appears to have one or two wins in two sectors, which is why it may appear that they may have been deceived into thinking the patient is on his way to recovery.”
According to him, Tinubu’s first achievement was improving revenue and reducing borrowing compared to the Buhari years.
“He has managed to get more revenue, at least in nominal terms, and the domestic borrowing that was the feature of President Buhari’s finance has reduced. So, he’s managed to get some revenue in. Because of other wrong-headed policy, all the money he’s got in, in real time, will not be able to finance the government spending and infrastructure. In terms of balance sheet, Tinubu has managed to get a better balance sheet than Buhari left him.”
Adebayo also pointed to changes in how inflation is calculated as another factor, which is giving the impression of economic improvement.
“The second thing that helped them, which we will know in the long run if it is the best thing to do, is that they rebased inflation — they started counting inflation differently. If they say inflation has dropped to about 20 point something perbcent now, from 21 point something last month, it’s not because the economy is better but because the counting has changed. Whether their counting is more reflective of reality, let us see by the first quarter of next year when they are implementing their budget. Remember that the 2025 budget hasn’t been able to come on stream yet, so we won’t be able to know what it looks like in terms of macroeconomics.”
The SDP chieftain added that while the relative fall in food inflation has helped bring down the headline figure, ordinary Nigerians were yet to feel the impact.
“The first thing that had worked for them is the relative fall in food inflation. Since the prices of food have come down a bit, but it hasn’t dropped to the extent where those at home will feel it.”
Summing up his assessment, Adebayo argued that the economy is no worse than last year, but still far from where it should be.
“So in a way, the economy, in terms of these numbers, is not worse than last year, but it’s far away from where it ought to be,” Adebayo stated.
