Trump’s America: What Today’s Midterm Elections Could Mean For Minorities Today?

Special Analysis by Osmund Agbo

American democracy is sustained by more than presidential elections. Midterm elections, conducted halfway through a president’s four-year tenure, provide an important constitutional mechanism through which voters can recalibrate the balance of political power without waiting for another presidential election. This is one of the defining features of America’s system of checks and balances.

For me, as a Black immigrant, and for millions of others belonging to racial minority groups and communities of color in America, the November 3, 2026, midterm elections could prove particularly consequential. Their outcome will help determine not merely the direction of government, but also the future of equal opportunity, civil rights, and minority representation.

Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive campaign against diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives and longstanding affirmative action policies. His administration has rescinded federal affirmative action requirements for government contractors, dismantled DEI programs across federal agencies, and advanced measures intended to discourage comparable initiatives in the private sector. Proponents characterize these actions as an affirmation of meritocracy and equal treatment. Critics, however, regard them as a retreat from institutional safeguards designed to confront historical discrimination and broaden opportunities for historically marginalized communities.

Whatever one’s political persuasion, the implications are far-reaching. When mechanisms intended to expand access to education, employment, government contracting, and positions of leadership are dismantled, the consequences are rarely distributed evenly across society. Communities that have historically encountered structural barriers to opportunity have particularly compelling reasons to pay attention. This is precisely where the midterms assume their significance.

American political history offers compelling evidence that midterm elections frequently function as a referendum on the incumbent president’s performance. Since 1938, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterm elections, with only two exceptions. In 2010, Barack Obama’s Democratic Party suffered a loss of 63 House seats. In 2018, during Trump’s first presidency, Republicans surrendered 41 seats. These outcomes illustrate how dramatically voters can recalibrate the distribution of political power between presidential elections.

The stakes in 2026 transcend ordinary partisan victories and defeats. Should Democrats reclaim the House, they would acquire considerable leverage to intensify congressional oversight, investigate the administration’s actions, and obstruct or reshape legislative initiatives advancing its agenda. If they also secure the Senate, their influence over legislation, presidential appointments, and governmental oversight would expand considerably. Conversely, should Republicans retain control of both chambers, the administration would enjoy greater latitude to pursue its priorities with fewer institutional impediments.

Congressional control alone cannot automatically reinstate affirmative action or nullify every executive action. The judiciary, existing statutory frameworks, and presidential authority remain consequential. Nevertheless, control of Congress determines which legislative proposals receive consideration, which executive actions attract scrutiny, and which presidential nominations advance or encounter resistance.

For minorities and people of color, electoral abstention is hardly a politically neutral act. It amounts to relinquishing influence over policies that may profoundly affect their opportunities, representation, and protection under the law.

The ballot is more than an instrument for choosing between political parties. It is an expression of popular sovereignty through which citizens can defend existing protections, demand institutional accountability, or sanction a different political direction.

Ultimately, the question confronting America is not simply which party will control Congress, but what the exercise of that power will mean for the enduring promise of equal opportunity. On November 3, the future will not be determined exclusively by the loudest voices in the political arena, but also by ordinary citizens who recognize the power of their franchise and choose to exercise it.

Osmund Agbo is a medical doctor, author, and the 2026 recipient of the Thabo Mbeki Prize for Scholarship and Public Service.