US Elections: 5 Major Issues That Could Determine How Americans Vote

As Americans vote in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, rising living costs, immigration and President Donald Trump’s declining popularity are shaping the battle for control of Congress.

The elections will determine whether Republicans retain their narrow majorities or Democrats gain control of either chamber, increasing their power to scrutinise Trump’s administration and challenge its policies.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by eight percentage points, 46 per cent to 38 per cent, while Trump’s approval rating hovered near a record low of 31 per cent. Against this backdrop, five major issues could influence voters’ decisions and determine the balance of power in Washington.

Here are five major issues that could determine how Americans vote

1. Trump’s Popularity and the Battle for Congress

One of the central questions surrounding the election is whether Trump’s declining popularity will translate into losses for Republicans in Congress.

The president has taken an unusually prominent role in the closing stages of the campaign, holding rallies and encouraging voters to treat the congressional elections as though he were personally contesting them.

His strategy is aimed at energising his political base and improving turnout for Republican candidates. However, it also risks motivating Democrats and independent voters who oppose his administration.

According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos findings, about half of independent voters surveyed said their congressional vote was intended to oppose Trump, compared with 13 per cent who described their vote as support for him. A further 33 per cent said the president was not a factor in their decision.

The poll also indicated a difference in enthusiasm between the parties, with 49 per cent of Democratic voters describing themselves as very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 33 per cent of Republicans. .

For Democrats, the elections offer an opportunity to challenge an administration they accuse of breaking campaign promises, particularly on the economy and foreign policy. They have also pledged to investigate alleged corruption and hold the administration accountable if they gain control of either chamber.

Republicans, meanwhile, are seeking to retain their congressional majorities and preserve their ability to advance Trump’s legislative agenda.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber, according to the election briefing, to take control of both the House and Senate. The two contests, however, have different electoral dynamics, and a shift in one chamber would not automatically translate into a victory in the other.

A Democratic victory could significantly complicate Trump’s legislative agenda by giving the opposition greater influence over congressional investigations, spending negotiations and oversight of the executive branch.

2. Cost of Living, Fuel Prices and Economic Frustration

The cost of living has emerged as the most prominent issue for voters, placing pressure on both parties to demonstrate how their policies would improve household finances.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted shortly before Election Day found that 48 per cent of registered voters identified the cost of living as the most important factor in deciding how to vote. That placed it ahead of democratic norms, cited by 26 per cent, and immigration, identified by 13 per cent.

Another finding from the survey showed that 49 per cent of Americans believed their household finances had deteriorated since Trump returned to office in January 2025, while 13 per cent said their finances had improved and 37 per cent reported little change. .

Fuel prices have become a particularly sensitive issue following the US-Israeli military strikes on Iran in February and the subsequent rise in energy costs.

According to figures cited in the campaign briefing, the national average price of petrol had reached $4.28 per gallon, $1.20 higher than a year earlier. Diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon, representing an increase of $2.70 over the same period.

Higher transport and energy costs have added to pressure on household budgets, while grocery prices and housing expenses remain major concerns.

Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed grocery costs rising by 1.8 per cent over the preceding year, while Federal Housing Finance Agency data indicated that home prices increased by 2.1 per cent.

The economic debate has also been shaped by Republicans’ tax legislation, which extended tax cuts while reducing spending on Medicaid and other health programmes by roughly $1 trillion, according to the figures cited in the campaign briefing.

Democrats have criticised the impact of those spending reductions and have pledged to pursue policies aimed at making healthcare, housing and other essential expenses more affordable.

Republicans, in turn, have defended their economic agenda and argued that their tax policies are intended to support growth and protect taxpayers.

The dispute extends to foreign policy. The war involving Iran has contributed to rising fuel costs, making the administration’s handling of the conflict relevant to voters concerned about their finances.

For Trump’s party, the challenge is to convince voters that its economic policies will eventually deliver relief. For Democrats, the opportunity lies in persuading voters that Republicans have failed to address the financial pressures facing ordinary Americans.

3. Immigration Enforcement and Controversies Over Federal Agents

Immigration remains another defining issue, with the Trump administration pointing to a sharp decline in migrant apprehensions at the US-Mexico border as evidence of the effectiveness of its enforcement policies.

Preliminary Department of Homeland Security data cited in the campaign briefing showed a 95 per cent reduction in apprehensions at the southwestern border compared with the Biden administration. The department also said there had been no releases by Border Patrol agents during the entire fiscal year for the first time.

Republicans have presented these figures as evidence that tougher border controls are working, reinforcing an issue that helped Trump win the 2024 presidential election.

Democrats, however, have focused on the consequences of enforcement operations, including fatal encounters involving federal immigration agents in Maine, Minnesota and Texas.

The deaths of two US citizens in Minnesota generated particular controversy, pushing some Democratic candidates towards more aggressive positions on immigration enforcement. Some called for the impeachment of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, while others advocated abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, commonly known as ICE.

The parties have also clashed over funding for immigration agencies. A stalemate over immigration spending led Republicans to pass a $70 billion measure to fund ICE and Border Patrol for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.

Republicans have countered Democratic criticism by accusing the opposition of supporting open borders, an allegation Democrats dispute through their calls for greater accountability and changes to enforcement practices.

The controversy widened after federal immigration officials raided the Washington home of Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. The operation drew widespread condemnation from Democrats.

A person familiar with the case against Omar told Reuters that one potential aim of the investigation could be to strip her of US citizenship and deport her. That reported possibility has added to concerns among Democrats about the scope and political implications of federal immigration enforcement.

The competing narratives present voters with a choice between the administration’s emphasis on border security and the opposition’s concerns about enforcement methods, civil liberties and accountability.

The result could influence not only congressional control but also the political direction of immigration policy during the remainder of Trump’s term.

4. Healthcare, Medicaid and Abortion Rights

Healthcare is closely connected to the affordability debate, but it also represents a major political contest over the role of government and access to essential services.

In the lead-up to the elections, voters identified healthcare among the household expenses they most wanted lawmakers to address.

Republicans’ major legislative achievement included extending tax cuts alongside substantial reductions in spending on Medicaid and other health programmes. Medicaid provides health coverage to eligible low-income Americans.

Democrats have criticised the spending reductions and argued that they could place additional pressure on vulnerable households. The party has also sought to restore enhanced health insurance subsidies that benefited approximately 24 million Americans.

In 2025, Democrats forced a government shutdown in an unsuccessful attempt to extend the expiring subsidies, making healthcare funding a continuing source of confrontation between the parties.

The issue is also linked to the wider debate over the cost of insurance, medical treatment and household expenses. For voters already struggling with food, housing and energy bills, changes to healthcare support could have direct financial consequences.

Abortion rights add another dimension to the healthcare debate.

The US Supreme Court overturned the federal constitutional right to abortion in 2022, leaving states with greater authority to determine abortion policy. The decision continues to influence congressional campaigns, particularly in closely contested races.

In Maine, Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson is seeking to remind voters that Republican Senator Susan Collins supported the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Collins is facing voters in a general election for the first time since the court overturned the federal abortion right.

The issue could be significant for voters who regard reproductive rights as a priority, while Republicans continue to face competing expectations from supporters with different views on abortion.

Ultimately, the congressional results could influence future debates over federal healthcare funding, insurance subsidies and legislation affecting reproductive rights, even though major policy changes would still depend on the political balance in Washington.

5. Artificial Intelligence, Cryptocurrency and Israel

Beyond the leading national debates, artificial intelligence, data-centre expansion, cryptocurrency financing and US policy towards Israel could determine the outcome of individual races.

These issues are particularly important because congressional contests are decided state by state and district by district. A subject that is secondary in the national campaign can become decisive when it directly affects local communities or a candidate’s political support.

AI and data centres

The rapid expansion of data centres to support artificial intelligence has become a contentious issue, raising questions about electricity consumption, water use, infrastructure and the financial benefits of new technology.

In Ohio’s Senate race, Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown portrayed Republican Senator Jon Husted as the face of the data-centre industry.

The contest also illustrates the growing influence of political spending by technology and cryptocurrency interests. The cryptocurrency-linked super PAC Defend American Jobs has spent more than $46 million to support Husted’s re-election bid, according to the campaign briefing.

Brown, a former senator who chaired the Senate Banking Committee, is seeking to return to the chamber.

National polling suggests the data-centre debate extends beyond individual races. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 42 per cent of registered voters considered limiting data-centre construction a very important or the most important issue.

Concerns about electricity costs, water supplies and the effects of new infrastructure could make the issue particularly relevant in communities experiencing rapid technological development.

Cryptocurrency and campaign spending

The influence of large political donors has also become a subject of public concern.

The spending by cryptocurrency-linked groups in Ohio demonstrates how outside organisations can inject substantial resources into competitive races, potentially shaping campaign messaging and the candidates who receive support.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that a bipartisan majority of registered voters considered it inappropriate for billionaires to contribute tens of millions of dollars to influence elections. The finding suggests that campaign financing and the influence of wealthy donors could resonate beyond traditional party divisions.

For voters, the question is whether candidates will prioritise their constituents’ interests or those of powerful financial and corporate backers.

Israel and the Middle East

US policy towards Israel is another issue influencing some congressional contests, particularly where candidates hold sharply different positions on the conflict and American support for the Israeli government.

In Michigan, Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers has indicated that he would accept support from a pro-Israel super PAC that spent more than $30 million backing Democratic Representative Haley Stevens in her unsuccessful primary contest against Abdul El-Sayed.

El-Sayed subsequently became the Democratic nominee facing Rogers in the general election. The group had also spent more than $280,000 on mailers targeting El-Sayed, according to the campaign briefing.

The issue has created additional political pressure in a race where attitudes towards Israel and the Middle East could influence voters’ choices.

Trump has also endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election, bringing the president’s foreign-policy relationships into the wider political discussion.

Together, the debates over AI, cryptocurrency and Israel demonstrate how technology, campaign finance and international affairs can shape individual races even when the economy and immigration dominate the national conversation.

What Is at Stake?

The November 3 midterm elections are more than a contest for congressional seats. They are also a test of Trump’s political standing and the public’s assessment of his administration’s record.

For Republicans, retaining control of the House and Senate would strengthen the president’s ability to advance his agenda, defend his legislative achievements and maintain support within his party.

For Democrats, gaining control of either chamber would provide greater leverage to scrutinise the administration, investigate alleged misconduct and challenge policies on immigration, healthcare, spending and other contentious issues.