A professional presidential contestant, who is reputed for sagacity and unwavering capacity in mobilising for political action, Atiku Abubakar, former vice president to President Olusegun Obasanjo, from 1997 – 2007, is presently engaged in the last battle for the nation’s presidency.
His ambition to be Nigeria’s president dates as far back as 30 years when he threw his hat in the ring on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under the transition programme of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida. With the ban on General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua from participating further in the IBB’s transition programme, Atiku became the favoured inheritor of the Yar’Adua’s political machine that unleashed deadly defeat on Chief Olu Falae in the South-west zone in the race for the SDP’s presidential ticket in 1992.
When General Abdulsalami Abubakar unlocked the gates of democracy in 1998, ahead of the return of democracy in May 1999, the former Customs officer was back to the trenches as he emerged victorious as the governor-elect of Adamawa State on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Fortune would later smile on him as the Ota Farmer, newly released from prison for coup plotting, nominated him as vice president.
During the first tenure of Obasanjo as president, the Adamawa-born politician took complete charge of the economy, while the prisoner-turned-president toured the world to have Nigeria deleted from the list of Pariah Nations for its numerous human rights violations caused by long years of military regimes. By the time Obasanjo was done with his world travels, he discovered almost too late that his deputy had fully taken charge of the presidency. What was left for the chicken farmer was the title of ‘president’, with no support base.
Ahead of the 2003 PDP primaries, it became conspicuous that the old soldier was poised to kiss the dust. The PDP governors were not in his support; they were angling for the then Turakin Adamawa to take over. Clouds of defeat hovered over the skies of Obasanjo famed for his tightfistedness.
The option left was for the old soldier to bend the knee. Quickly, the old man swallowed his pride in order to avert the disgraceful looming defeat. This instantly worked as Atiku could not stand the sight of his benefactor lying on the floor. The PDP 2003 ticket came with a great price for Obasanjo who was determined to get his pound of flesh at the appropriate time. The war of attrition between Baba Iyabo and his deputy commenced, as Atiku would come under devastating probe panels, aimed at unveiling his alleged dark sides in public life. Insiders’ plots were interminable in ensuring that he was removed as deputy to Obasanjo.
If the first tenure of Obasanjo witnessed calm waters; the second tenure was turbulent. The alleged conspiracy for a ‘Third Term’ for Obasanjo by top presidency officials led to massive release of funds to buy members of the National Assembly to provide for tenure extension. Atiku, who then was at the forefront of denouncing any attempt to provide tenure extension, provided support to truncate the ‘Third Term’ dream. Atiku would pay dearly for his denunciation of the Third Term as his attempt to succeed his boss when he contested on the platform of Action Congress (AC) was stoutly resisted by Obasanjo in 2007.
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, younger brother to General Yar’Adua and Atiku’s political godfather, would later emerge as successor to Obasanjo. Despite suffering defeat in 2007, Atiku never let go of his ambition. Realising that the PDP was becoming an albatross in becoming the president, the Customs officer joined forces with the newly coupled platform of strange bedfellows, All Progressives Congress (APC), to wrest power in 2015.
Less than four years later, Atiku would return to his vomit in 2019 to challenge the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari, but suffered yet another excruciating defeat. Frustrated by the outcome of the 2019 polls, Atiku momentarily left everything on the field and returned to Dubai to wait for yet another chance.
Now, he is in the race for the nation’s highest office that could turn out his last bid. Like his APC opponent, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who is past three scores and half, the Adamawa-born politician is throwing everything in the fire to breast the tape for the nation’s presidency. However, his chances are still muddled up in the murky waters of Nigeria’s politics.
Atiku stands a chance of winning the next presidential poll, but at the same time, he must cross many rivers. His capacity in building political strongholds and maintaining solid electoral support has become legendary since he joined politics in 1992. Even after he was forced to politically kiss the dust in 2007, he refused to be relegated into the backwaters of politics.
Atiku is the most probed vice president and has survived many conspiracies plotted by his opponents to render him into a political nonentity. It is to his credit that despite an avalanche of allegations of corruption preferred against him, he has never been indicted of corruption by the courts. The PDP candidate has so many darts of corruption shot at him, but he remains clean.
When he asked, ‘who will stop me?’ when news reporters asked if he was sure he would take the PDP presidential ticket, he was only demonstrating his confidence in the control of the PDP structures. That he finally picked the party’s ticket despite hues and cries by Governor Nyesom Wike-led group of governors only reflected the relevance he wields in the party.
Some have alleged that his deep pockets have seen trying moments, but insiders say that his greatest headache is the denunciation for his candidacy by the G-5 governors. Atiku is greatly criticised in the manner he handled the smoke created by Wike after his defeat at the primaries that later snowballed into a wildfire. Reports have it that the PDP’s presidential candidate had his hands tied by some forces who had threatened to withdraw support for his presidency if he nominated Wike as his running mate as recommended by top leaders of the party. Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State has accused Atiku of working against his re-election, and the internal bickering of self-centred politicians; prognosticate many troubles ahead for Atiku’s electoral triumph.
The probability of Atiku wresting power from the APC-led administration appears difficult, but not unrealisable. Unlike 2015 when opposition parties were united in chasing the PDP from the corridor of power, the opposition is largely divided and incapable of creating a strong rainbow coalition to uproot the ruling party. A storm of disunity in both the PDP and Labour Party (LP) has continued to be welcomed by the APC whose prospects is being bolstered by its incumbency status and increasing the prospects of convincing politicians to join the ruling party for future rewards.
Just when many think that Atiku has had enough troubles in realising his ambition, the recent endorsement by Obasanjo of the LP’s candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, has darkened prospects for his electoral victory. Keeping the opposition in disunity ahead of the polls is a sure bet for the re-election of the APC.
As Atiku embarks on his final bid for the presidency, the wave of defections to the PDP may give hope for victory. While allegations have made the rounds that Atiku’s victory is assured as the ruling cabal is comfortable with him rejecting Wike, this does not take into cognisant the vow by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure the decision of the electorate is upheld through the newly introduced electronic voting.
Considering the dynamics trailing the candidacy of Atiku, 2023 is still unpredictable. Just as there are many obstacles against his chances of winning the election; there are also assets he can deploy to brighten his chances. The most important option for him now is to negotiate with the G-5 for their support. Non-reversal of the G-5 governors’ decision not to support him may constitute a high wall of obstacles.
However, Atiku is not the only candidate with many troubles; all the frontline candidates are swimming in their mud of troubles. How he survives the days ahead to emerge victorious as president-elect can only be act of faith, and working harder to change the realities on the ground.
The former Veepee knows that the challenge ahead is almost insurmountable. Sustaining this journey in realising his lifetime ambition is dependent more on what is not seen than what is seen. Can Atiku swing the pendulum towards his electoral success or end up as a professional presidential candidate? This question will be answered when Nigerian voters troop to elect President Buhari’s successor on February 25.
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