Bashkir Revolt As A Precursor Of Russia’s Collapse?

Bashkortostan (also known as Bashkiria, is a republic of Russia located between the Volga and the Ural Mountains) and the whole of Russia were shocked by mass protests, the first after the all-Russian anti-war protests in March 2022 and the protest in Dagestan in September of the same year. The previous unrest seemed obvious because it was caused by the shock of war against Ukraine and subsequent mobilization. Today, the situation for the Russian authorities is more complicated and dangerous.

In the past two years, Russian society has gotten used to the Special Military Operation (SMO). These three sad letters are no longer an independent trigger for protest. The protest is now generated in Russia by certain socially active segments of the population (wives, widows, and mothers of the mobilized). In addition, Russian “stability” is violated by the accompanying injustice in the form of delayed demobilization, failure to provide the mobilized with ammunition and the inclusion of the Killed in Action in the Missed in Action roster which bears proper financial losses for the families. But these factors have not yet channeled local “fires” into an all-Russian “blaze.”

The mass action in Bashkortostan fundamentally differs from the previous military protest. The protests, took place in Baymak in southern Russia, near the border with Kazakhstan. Several dozen thousands of Baymak residents came out demanding the release of the local activist Fail Alsynov who was sentenced to four years in prison. People decided to openly and forcefully confront government officials under the political slogans “Freedom!” and “United we are strong!”.

The protest was fueled by an article of the Criminal Code of Russia under which Alsynov was convicted: “Incitement to ethnic hatred”.

According to investigators, the activist spoke in the Bashkir language using statements that negatively assess residents of the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Armenians. Alsynov is also accused of insulting migrants at a demonstration against plans to mine for gold, but supporters said it was delayed revenge for his activism in preventing soda mining in what locals consider a sacred place.

The authorities deliberately shifted their emphasis, since Alsynov very clearly spoke out in defense of the rights of his native Bashkir people from the encroachments of other non-indigenous representatives. In April 2023, at a village gathering in the village of Ishmurzino where the residents protested against barbaric gold mining, Alsynov called on men to “come to faith and defend their lands.”

He also stated: “Armenians will go to their homeland, “kara halyk” to themselves, Russians to their Ryazan, Tatars to their Tatarstan. We can’t move, we don’t have another home, our home is here!”

Alsynov has also in the past criticised military mobilisation in the region as “genocide” of the Bashkir people, a Turkic race closely related to the Tatars which inhabits the southern Ural Mountains.

There have been long-running claims that a disproportionately high number of ethnic minorities in Russia are being sent to fight in Ukraine.

The choice of the indictment article shows how afraid the Kremlin is of the growth of separatist sentiments in the regions. This assumption is confirmed by the brutality with which the Russian security forces suppressed the protest rally in Bashkortostan, which snapped back with nothing but snowballs.

Alsynov, most likely, did not intend to hit the root cause of the Putin regime, but he struck by indirectly expressing a message that was brewing in many republics of the Russian Federation. He managed to raise about 20 thousands of previously apolitical citizens.
At different times, this idea was actualized under the slogan: “Stop feeding Moscow” in the form of separatist sentiments in Yakutia-Sakha, Tyva, Khabarovsk Territory and other territories. Alsynov spoke more delicately but preserving the essence of the ongoing processes.

The political shake-up in Bashkortostan threatens the Putin regime with significantly more destructive consequences than the isolated near-war protest. After all, he focuses on unimportant topics and related phenomena, without touching the main essence — crime and the meaninglessness of war.

With a regional focus, problems are seen closer and felt more painful. This means that sooner or later people will come to understand that they can really fight for their truth. Bashkortostan proved this. Non-acceptance of the central government and the possibility of direct opposition to its representatives may become a common trend for various protest groups in the regions of the Russian Federation. In this way, a cumulative effect can be achieved, forming a global goal for Russia – changing the political regime.

The involvement of territories and regional elites in protest will not necessarily be political. There are enough acute problems on the ground that could prompt the first protest. This includes total poverty, a catastrophe in the housing and communal services sector, barbaric destruction of natural resources, and mobilization with signs of genocide.

But the next steps will definitely be filled with political protest. After all, people will come to understand that the only reason for their disasters is the injustice of the central government towards the territories that form a significant part of the national wealth of the Russian Federation. That’s exactly why there is no gas in the settlements of gas-producing regions, and there is no life in oil-producing regions. This means that the most understandable and acceptable at this civilizational stage may be the good old slogan: Stop feeding Moscow! And then life will sparkle with truly bright colours.