It is customary as the year closes to engage in reviews while projecting for the future. Multiple angles require this introspection: personal, professional, political, national, regional, continental and global for a start. And within each facet there are sub categories – the personal for instance could include health, family ties, spirituality and financial flexibility and it is no wonder some would prefer not to engage in this stock taking. Easier to slide into the new year as yet another day – as memes on social media point out, surviving the year is enough of an achievement for those looking to count wins.
2023 was pretty momentous for Nigeria as we held the 7th general election since 1999, ushering in the end of one administration and the beginning of another. The campaigns, elections and dispute of results in the courts have implications for the health of Nigeria’s democracy and governance and while the impact is still being debated and analyzed, in the wider context of liberal democracy as a global model for governance, there is trouble ahead for democracy and we see this most clearly around elections.
Global overview
40 percent of the world should be voting in 2024, in over 40 countries including Mexico, India, Iran, Russia, Ukraine and the United States. It does seem that since 2016, elections in the US have been important to follow. We don’t know yet who will have the republican ticket, but within the US and outside, who wins will be important as the legitimacy of the US to ‘lead’ the world in anything is consistently being whittled away, with the war on Palestine precipitating fresh decline. As Europe’s elections continue to usher in far right, anti-immigrant, Islamophobic regimes, the EU parliament elections in June 2024 will be one to watch – will the trend in national elections be reflected in the EU? What will that do to its relationship with the global majority countries? It is not clear yet if the UK will vote in 2024 but there is a sense of anticipation as the Tories seem to have outstayed their popularity. Asides Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena party is a plausible contender for the presidency, there are no women in strong contention in most of the countries holding presidential elections, though Nikki Haley of the United States republican party is enjoying a recent surge in polls.
In Africa
President Ramaphosa of South Africa will be seeking reelection in 2024 at a time when support for the African National Congress (ANC) is dwindling. There are predictions that ANC could lose the overall majority it has held since 1994 and not only because of persistent allegations of corruption within the leadership of ANC, economic hardship, and high crime and unemployment in South Africa. The demography is changing with 10 million registered voters between 18-39 years old who question the legacy of Mandela and the ANC – they might not vote for the major opposition Democratic Alliance or for Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters, but they could stay away thereby voting against.
Algeria, Ghana, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, South Sudan, Togo and Tunisia will also be voting in 2024 and while there is unlikely to be any change to the status quo in Mozambique, Togo and Rwanda, Senegal and Ghana – both in coup haven West Africa are ones to watch.
If Ghana’s election history is a good indication, the incumbent party – New Patriotic Party (NPP) should lose at the polls to former president Mahama of the National Democratic Congress who lost his bid for a second term during the 2016 general elections. It does not help NPP that Akufo-Addo’s administration has been disappointing, leading Ghana into the worst economic and financial crisis the country has experienced in decades. However, NPP might be taking a leaf from Nigeria with the politics of identity in selecting the current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia as its presidential candidate for 2024. This is the first time a northerner and Muslim will be contesting for the presidency with the NPP ticket since the return to multi-party democracy in 1992. Ghana has not knowingly voted for a muslim president. Will this ‘first’ be enough to sway voters or is there some cynicism in the choice, the way women are rarely given winnable tickets?
Senegal has boiled for the last few years in preparation for the 2024 elections and anticipation that President Sall was seeking to secure a third term in office. Although he declared in July 2023 that he would not be running, his administration is being held responsible for controversially arranging for Ousmane Sonko to be ineligible to run in 2024. Sonko came third in the 2019 elections but his popularity since then has made him the key threat in a field with weak opposition. This position is strengthened by President Sall’s history of lawfare. Karim Wade, son of former president Abdoulaye Wade, was sentenced to six years imprisonment for corruption days after a political party nominated him as their presidential candidate in 2015 and Khalifa Sall, the Mayor of Dakar was rendered ineligible to run in 2019 on corruption charges. Sall’s party – Alliance for the Republic has nominated the Prime Minister Amadou Ba as its presidential candidate; unfortunately, the relationship and set up is reminiscent of Putin’s Russia.
Nigeria
Two states will be electing governors in 2024 – Edo and Ondo on 21st September and 16th November respectively. In both states the incumbents will not be on the ballot and as such this opens up the field ways that are worth observing.
Governor Obaseki, who was first elected under the All Progressive Congress (APC) ticket and then swapped places with Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate who lost to him both times, seems set to follow in the tradition of governors anointing their successors. At least two aspirants, Asue Ighodalo and Olumide Akpata – both lawyers who are reported to be friends, have declared their intent, with Ighodalo as the anointed for PDP and Akpata for Labour as a challenger. A third aspirant is rumored to be Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, of Access Bank. All 3 are outsiders to politics in the way that Obaseki was before he won in 2016 and this could be a problem for them as they seek their party tickets and/or with voters on election day.
Deputies rarely succeed their principals in Nigeria and it looks set to be difficult for Lucky Aiyedatiwa who has fallen out of favor with Akeredolu and his camp due to the latter’s ill health and perceptions that the deputy has been too eager to replace him. While primaries are to be concluded by end of April 2024, Chief Oke, a senior advocate is alleged to be in a good position to get the APC ticket – however things could go in any number of ways for all aspirants.
It is vital that INEC take the 2024 elections as an opportunity to redeem its reputation as election manager.
Close
Elections alone do not mean a society is democratic but it is clear that elections – legitimate or otherwise, have lasting impact on the health of democracy. Increasing polarization from elections poisons the ability to govern effectively and the high stakes of winning are delegitimizing processes and creating mistrust in critical institutions. What can be done to improve the perception of elections? Can democracy survive if trust in elections collapses? What can be done to strengthen democratic culture and institutions within and outside elections? These questions and more will dominate in 2024 and beyond.
Regardless of relationship between elections and democracy and how we perceive the marking of time, many of us are hardwired through custom and practice to see the start of the year as an opportunity to rest and be better. Here is to hoping that elections in 2024, if nothing else, will be better than the ones in the past.
