The recent announcement of a coalition of opposition leaders ahead of the 2027 general election potentially marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s political calculation.
Led by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, and other prominent figures from across party lines, this alliance evokes memories of the 2013 coalition that birthed the All Progressives Congress (APC) and eventually toppled the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
While the formation of this coalition is a welcome development for the nation’s democratic health, several questions loom over its viability and sincerity of purpose.
Needless to say a vibrant opposition is undeniably essential for any democracy to thrive. The emergence of this coalition theoretically promises to inject much-needed vitality into Nigeria’s political discourse, potentially preventing the current administration from receiving an unchallenged path to re-election.
Democracy withers when alternatives disappear, and a de facto one-party state emerges. In this light, the coalition’s formation represents a positive step toward maintaining the checks and balances crucial for democratic governance.
However, political alliances in Nigeria have historically suffered from a fatal flaw – the oversized egos and unbridled ambitions of the key players. This new coalition brings together individuals with well-documented presidential aspirations and a history of fierce competition.
The most pressing question is whether these political heavyweights can subordinate their personal ambitions for the greater goal of presenting a united front against the ruling party.
Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambition stretches back to 1992, spanning multiple parties and electoral cycles. Having contested for the presidency multiple times, most recently in 2023, can he genuinely step aside for another candidate if coalition calculations suggest someone else has better chances?
Similarly, will Peter Obi, who has cultivated a passionate following, particularly among urban youth and the middle class, be willing to play a supporting role? Can Nasir El-Rufai, known for his political acumen and ambition, subordinate his aspirations to the coalition’s broader objectives?
The 2023 election serves as a reminder of the consequences of a fragmented opposition. The splitting of opposition votes among Atiku’s PDP, Obi’s Labour Party, and Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party significantly aided President Tinubu’s electoral victory. Had these forces united behind a single candidate, the outcome might have been substantially different. This historical lesson should serve as both motivation and warning for the new coalition – unite genuinely or prepare for another defeat.
In the considered opinion of this newspaper, for this coalition to succeed where others have failed, it must address several fundamental challenges. First, it must articulate a clear, coherent vision for Nigeria beyond the mere goal of ousting the incumbent. Voters need to understand precisely what alternative governance the coalition offers.
Second, the coalition must establish transparent, democratic mechanisms for selecting its flag bearer, ensuring that the process doesn’t degenerate into acrimonious disputes that could fracture the alliance. Third, the coalition leadership must demonstrate a genuine commitment to putting national interests above personal ambitions.
The current economic hardships facing Nigerians present the opposition with a unique opportunity. With inflation soaring, fuel prices climbing, and millions struggling to meet basic needs, citizens are increasingly desperate for credible alternatives.
However, this coalition must offer more than criticism – it must present practical, implementable solutions to Nigeria’s myriad challenges. Opposition for opposition’s sake without substantive policy alternatives will gain little traction with an electorate that has grown weary of unfulfilled political promises.
The opposition coalition’s call for President Tinubu to reverse the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State indicates their intention to engage immediately on pressing national issues. Yet this engagement must extend beyond political hot-button issues to encompass comprehensive policy positions on the economy, security, education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
The coalition must demonstrate that it represents not just an alternative party but an alternative path for national development.
History offers both encouragement and caution for this nascent coalition. The APC’s successful unseating of the PDP in 2015 demonstrates that a united opposition can indeed defeat an incumbent administration.
However, the subsequent performance of the APC government also illustrates that winning elections is merely the beginning – governing effectively is the true test of political movements. The opposition coalition must learn from both the successes and failures of previous political realignments.
For ordinary Nigerians, the formation of this coalition should be viewed with cautious optimism. While political competition is vital for democracy, citizens should demand substantive policy debates rather than mere power struggles.
The electorate must push this coalition to articulate clear, realistic plans for addressing the nation’s challenges and hold coalition leaders accountable for their commitments.
As 2027 approaches, the true test for this opposition coalition will be whether it can transcend the personal ambitions of its constituent members to present a united, coherent alternative to the current administration.
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