FAO Forecasts Global Cereal Production, Trade Decline In 2026/27 Season

Global cereal production is projected to decline in the 2026/27 season after reaching a record high the previous year, according to the latest cereals supply and demand brief released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

The United Nations agency forecasts world cereal output to fall by 2 percent year-on-year to 2.982 billion tonnes, largely due to expected reductions in wheat harvests across major producing regions.

The anticipated decline comes after global cereal production surged by 6.1 percent in the 2025/26 season to an unprecedented 3.043 billion tonnes. The strong harvests recorded during the period also contributed to an estimated 9.5 per cent increase in global cereal stocks.

Despite the expected drop in production, worldwide cereal utilisation is projected to continue growing, although at a slower pace.

FAO estimates global cereal use will rise by 0.6 per cent in 2026/27, compared with the 2.7 per cent growth recorded in the preceding season.

Global cereal stocks are also forecast to contract marginally by 0.3 per cent, mainly reflecting lower rice inventories. Nevertheless, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is expected to remain relatively stable at 31.7 per cent, indicating that overall supply conditions are likely to remain comfortable.

International cereal trade is also expected to weaken slightly in the coming season. After expanding by 4.8 per cent in 2025/26, global cereal trade is projected to decline by 0.3 per cent to 507.2 million tonnes.

According to the FAO, lower volumes of wheat and barley traded on international markets are expected to outweigh anticipated increases in shipments of maize and rice, resulting in an overall contraction in global cereal trade.

FAO said a more comprehensive assessment of global cereal market developments and food commodity trends will be published in its forthcoming food outlook report, scheduled for release on June 18, 2026.