The global telecoms industry grew 4.3 per cent in 2023, reaching $1.1 trillion, even as Nigeria has emerged as one of the fastest-growing fixed broadband markets, according to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook.
Fixed broadband subscriptions in Nigeria are projected to grow by 9.2 per cent annually through 2028, placing it among the world’s top performers alongside India (17.2 per cent) and Malaysia (9 per cent).
Despite revenue expansion, the industry faces challenges such as rising costs, fierce competition, and declining average revenue per user (ARPU). For instance, global telecoms revenue is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 2.9 per cent through 2028—below inflation.
However, growth in key markets like Nigeria signals strong demand for connectivity and digital services, particularly in regions with expanding infrastructure investments.
While 5G revenue remains subdued, the Outlooks findings revealed that global subscriptions are expected to soar from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion by 2028. This surge will see 5G become the dominant mobile standard by 2026.
Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA) is also projected to be the fastest-growing broadband technology through 2028, with a CAGR of 18.3 per cent, further supporting the expansion of internet access in emerging markets.
Against this backdrop, momentum of capital is shifting decisively towards fixed connectivity – or fibre, the Outlook findings disclosed.
In 2023, total telecom capex fell 2.3 per cent, driven by a 5.7 per cent decline in mobile. However, industry capex is projected to grow at a 2.4 per cent CAGR from 2024, fuelled initially by fixed broadband investments for fibre roll-out, and later in the period by a revival in mobile CapEx as operators prepare for 6G.
In the automotive and mobility sector, the outlook finds that the sector will power cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services.
Driven in large part by increased adoption of smart automobiles and the mobility sector, cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services has emerged as an industry bright spot across all regions.
Overall, IoT revenue in the automotive sector is projected to more than double between 2023 and 2028 to reach US$34.1 billion, rising at a CAGR of 15.8 per cent.
Reacting to the findings, the global telecoms leader at PwC US, Dr. Florian Gröne, emphasised the need for strategic evolution in the sector, stating, “The telecoms industry must re-imagine how it creates, delivers and captures value in the face of rising costs and competition. The industry faces enormous potential, particularly as consumers and societal actors increasingly operate across digital platforms and AI drives significant investments in digital connectivity infrastructure, but the industry remains sensitive to macroeconomic forces and is highly cost-intensive, with almost all the cash it generates absorbed by CapEx, dividends and servicing debt. As new and emerging technologies transform sectors, the telecoms industry must harness the power of AI, while working with investors and regulators to optimise market structure and deploy deals to build scale.”
As new and emerging technologies transform industry, fuel demand for connectivity services and digital infrastructure and investment, AI presents a significant opportunity for the telecoms industry, but one that still remains under-utilised. At the consumer level, AI tools and capabilities can also help telcos deliver personalised customer experiences, boosted workforce productivity and deployment, and AI-powered cognitive network operations centres (NOCs) that provide actionable insights and efficiencies in real time.
WMA consulting and risk services leader, PwC Nigeria, Femi Osinubi said, “Telecom players must accelerate their investment and application of AI technologies if they are to transform their cost base and customer experience. At the same time, the digital infrastructure needed to power the AI economy will also create significant opportunities for utility providers to deliver the next version of the internet – the “AI grid” – and serve the growing demand for connectivity.
