The forthcoming governorship elections in no fewer than 10 states have been upended by the outcome of the February 25, 2023 presidential election which exposed the limits to the strength of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) in states like Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Nasarawa and Gombe.
In opposition controlled states like Delta, Enugu and Benue, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) also performed abysmally, raising the prospects of a third force emerging victorious in the governing and state assembly polls rescheduled for March 18, 2023.
Findings by LEADERSHIP Weekend showed that the political establishments in these states have been jolted by the presidential election results and are bracing for more competitive races next week.
The ripple effects of the election outcome have been right at the top of the leadership of governing APC where the party chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, is reported to have blamed Governor Audu Sule for the loss of the state to the Labour Party.
This paper learnt that Adamu, a former governor of Nasarawa who was until recently a senator representing the state, had initially vowed not to support the reelection bid of Governor Sule over what he felt was the governor’s negligence during the presidential and National Assembly elections.
In Nasarawa State, the Labour Party scored the highest votes in the presidential election, while the Social Democratic Party(SDP) was able to win two senatorial seats.
Just recently the Labour Party (LP) gubernatorial candidate in the state, Joseph Ewuga, stepped down from the race and endorsed the PDP candidate, Ombugadu.
LEADERSHIP Weekend gathered that the incumbent governor is currently strategising to win the polls. Such moves have led to his recent endorsement by the national chairman of the APC Sen. Abdullahi Adamu.
This forced the governor to lead some emirs and stakeholders to the national chairman of the party to appease him and seek his support.
Adamu, during a grand rally on Thursday, however declared support for the re-election of Governor Sule.
The former senator representing Nasarawa West said he was working for the realisation of Governor Sule’s second term bid.
He spoke amidst speculations of a supposed rift between him and the governor which allegedly led to Adamu losing his senatorial district in recent presidential and National Assembly elections in the state.
While the Labour Party defeated the two major political parties, APC and the PDP, at the presidential level in the state which has been the ruling party’s stronghold, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won Adamu’s senatorial district and Nasarawa North.
The APC also lost Nasarawa South senatorial district to the main opposition party, the PDP, during the poll.
It was gathered that Adamu who had blamed Sule for the party’s poor performance, adding that the governor has not done enough to galvanise support for the party ahead of the poll, allegedly promised to scuttle his second term ambition.
However, speaking at a mega rally in Keffi ahead of the rescheduled poll, Adamu said Sule deserved a second term, even as he urged stakeholders to work towards the actualisation of the governor’s ambition.
He said the emergence of Sule for a second term would enable him consolidate on the good work he has been doing for the state.
The national chairman stated: “There is no one else we should be voting for except Gov. Sule, so he can come back and complete his remaining four years’ tenure before we vote for someone else.
“Now the election has been shifted to March 18. In spite of this, there is no rest till we complete the exercise and Gov. Sule is pronounced as winner and Governor-elect”.
He called on party members and supporters to come out en masse and vote the governor during the rescheduled poll.
In Lagos, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu who is the candidate of the APC will contest against Olajide Adediran of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of LP for the governorship seat of the state.
Given the victory of the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, in Lagos, his party’s candidate, Rhodes-Vivour, has automatically become a major challenge for Sanwo-Olu in the governorship election.
Thus, voters in Lagos State who have seen the relegation of PDP, the major opposition party in the state before the presidential polls, have continued to share their worst fears and best hopes for what may unfold.
Some observers believe that the political earthquake caused by Peter Obi in Lagos State against the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who dominated politics for a quarter century, winning the state in the country’s hotly contested presidential election with narrow margin, could reoccur in the governorship election.
Obi polled 582,454 votes to defeat Tinubu who polled 572,606 votes in the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while PDP trailed with 75,750 votes.
While some observers believe that the governorship candidate of the Labour Party , Rhodes-Vivour, will ride on the wings of the Labour Party to defeat the incumbent governor, others dismiss it with a wave of the hand in the sense that the dynamics of presidential and governorship elections in the cosmopolitan state has always been different.
As far as they are concerned, the Labour Party candidate, Obi, who got the massive support of his kinsmen highly concentrated in Lagos State was the rave and not Rhodes-Vovour.
Again, the victory was largely attributed to the angst against the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC, as a lot of the churches in the state mobilised their members against the APC which equally had some internal wrangling said to have been resolved by the president elect, Tinubu.
Speaking on the chances of the their party’s candidate, Lagos State publicity secretary of Labour Party, Mrs Olubunmi Odesanya, said, “Our party will spring surprises, the people of Lagos State, love our party, and they are ready to vote for us enmasse.
“The people of Lagos will give us more votes, even more than the one we got during the presidential election. Our concern is will INEC let the votes count? Our governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes –Vivour, has always harped on the insincerity of INEC. Will INEC live up to expectation by being sincere, can the electorate trust INEC?’’
But in an exclusive chat with LEADERSHIP Weekend, the APC secretary in Lagos State, Summi Odesanya, said the Labour Party does not pose any threat to the ruling party in the state, saying the party cleared the three senatorial seats and 20 House of Representatives seats out of 22 in the last election.
He said, “We are fully prepared for the governorship election, and I am sure we will get more votes in the election, because people of Lagos State are keen at having Sanwo -Olu back as the governor of the state, to complete the lofty projects he has started.
“Labour party is not a threat. The scenario that played out in Lagos State on February 25, 2023 in the presidential election will not repeat itself because the scenario and the colouration of the governorship election is different.
“APC’s chances of winning the governorship election is very bright and there is no doubt about that.’’
The APC too described the endorsement of Rhodes-Vivour, by Afenifere as a “laughable charade”
In Kano, a one-time special adviser to the Kano State government described the just concluded presidential and National Assembly elections where the opposition New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) performed creditably well as a pointer to the governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections.
The former SA who did not want his name to be mentioned in black and white said the NNPP which came from the blues and performed creditably well in both the presidential and National Assembly elections would dislodged the ruling APC in the forthcoming gubernatorial contest .
“As you can see after the announcement of the presidential election result, Dr Rabiu Musa kwankwaso got close to a million votes, while his closest rival, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, got over half a million votes to come second in the contest,” he said.
The former SA said from the mere look of things the NNPP had become a party to beat in the state.
Other stakeholders who spoke anonymously from both the NNPP, APC and PDP and Labour Party said although their parties performed dismally, they are hopeful and determined to give the NNPP and APC, being the ruling party, a good fight .
A member of the NNPP, Malam Aliyu Garba who spoke with our reporter exclusively said, “We are going to work hard to maintain our supremacy over all other political parties worth their onions and we are not going to rest on our oars.
“We are fully ready to face any challenge and in Allah’s name we are going to win the governorship and all the state assembly elections.”
On his party, Alhaji Nura Mohammed Ketawa said as a bonafide member of the APC, there is every indication that the current deputy governor and governorship candidate of the APC, Dr Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna, will clinch the exalted position God’s willing.
Ketawa said the Gawuna /Garo ticket is a ticket for all given the fact that “both of them are well cultured and have good manners.
“They are highly respected across all parties and people are determined to vote for them,” he added.
On the part of NNPP, one of the spokesmen of the party said no party will dare the winning team because the people are clamouring for change and are eager to cast their votes for NNPP during the coming governorship election, even if for nothing, but for the records of their leader, Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who supported children of the poor to become something in life.
Meanwhile, in what could be termed a political tsunami, Deltans surprised the PDP vice presidential candidate, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, in the just-concluded presidential election when he lost his state to the Labour Party (LP) standard bearer Peter Obi.
Since the return to democracy 24 years ago, this is the first time PDP is losing a presidential election in the state. Most people believe that the loss would trickle down to the March 18 governorship election where Hon Sheriff Oborevwori, PDP candidate, and other PDP state assembly candidates may kiss the dust.
According to the State Collation Officer, Prof. Owunari Georgewill of the University of Port-Harcourt, while Obi of the LP got a total vote of 341,866, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar emerged second with 161,600, even as Bola Tinubu of the APC garnered 90,183 votes to come third.
Political watchers say the 2023 presidential election in the state speaks to the level of discontent by Deltans against the outgoing governor who has always bragged that ‘PDP is Delta, Delta is PDP’.
Interestingly, votes by the Labour Party across the state were a combined effort not only by LP members but also the Obedient Movement, consisting of young Nigerians mobilizing behind the former Anambra governor’s candidature.
They are drawn from LP and a cross section of PDP, APC, SDP, and other political parties.
Nothing could better describe the humiliation suffered by the PDP especially with its governorship candidate, Oborevwori, who doubles as the Speaker of the state assembly, losing his polling unit to Labour Party by over 100 votes.
In Enugu, the outcome of the presidential election may affect the outcome of the forthcoming governorship and state assembly elections.
Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, defeated other candidates with a wide margin while the incumbent governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, lost his bid to go to the Senate.
Surprisingly, Ugwuanyi was defeated by the candidate of the Labour Party in Enugu North senatorial district, Okey Ezea, with more than 50,000 votes.
Although the Enugu East senatorial election was postponed because of the gruesome murder of the senatorial candidate of the Labour Party, Oyibo Chukwu, the Labour Party won seven House of Representatives seats out of the eight seats, while the PDP managed to win one.
For senate, Labour Party won one seat while the PDP managed to win one seat.
Investigations revealed that the Labour Party may win the governorship seat and majority of the state assembly seats because of the Peter Obi factor.
The results of the last presidential and National Assembly elections in Gombe State shocked many, as the opposition PDP took over many National Assembly seats hitherto occupied by the ruling APC in the state.
PDP also won the presidential election landslide with 319, 223 votes as against APC’s 146, 977 votes.
Also, the opposition PDP won majority of the Senate and House of Representatives seats in the state, even as some serving APC Senators and Reps members were defeated.
The PDP won Gombe North senatorial district where its candidate, former Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo, was elected. It also won the Gombe South senatorial district where Anthony Siyako emerged winner, while the ruling APC only retained the Gombe central senatorial seat with Danjuma Goje as the winner.
Governor Inuwa Yahaya also lost his polling unit to the PDP in the presidential election.
If the same scenario is replicated in the upcoming governorship election, there is the possibility that the opposition PDP may win the state.
However, the opposition has itsown challenges too as it may have divided votes in the coming governorship election.
The NNPP also presented a formidable and popular candidate for the governorship election in the person of Khamisu Mailantarki.
Mailantarki had been receiving a lot of aggrieved PDP chieftains and stalwarts into his camp, even as he has been doling out cars and motorcycles to his supporters, thereby posing a threat to the PDP as the main opposition party in the state.
With divided votes, the incumbent governor and candidate of the APC, Inuwa Yahaya, may return to Government House Gombe for a second term.
From indications the result of the last presidential election in which PDP emerged winner in Kebbi State may repeat itself in the next governorship and state assembly elections in the state.
LEADERSHIP Weekend gathered yesterday in Birnin Kebbi that people in the state are no longer interested in APC; they need change; they want candidates that would get them out of the present hardship.
Some of them who spoke with our correspondent said nobody can force them to vote APC and its candidates. They said they have rights as citizens of the state and the country to exercise their rights and civic responsibility during the election to elect candidates of their choice.
In Benue, results of the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state have led to adjustment and realignment of political parties, especially those that lost out in the February 25 elections.
Even though the APC cleared almost all the elective positions in the State, the publicity secretary, Daniel Ihomun, during a press conference in Makurdi after the presidential and National Assembly elections alleged that the PDP was planning to use INEC staff to ignore the BVAS and rig the governorship and State Assembly elections.
Our correspondent gathered from some political parties that the recent lifting of the ban on motorcycle operations two years after in Sankera axis comprising Katsina-Ala, Ukum and Logo local government few days to the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections by Governor Samuel Ortom is one among the PDP strategies to woo prospective voters.
Chairman of the Young Peoples Party (YPP), Dr Hough Gwadue, after a meeting in Makurdi, also announced that the party has decided to collapse its structures into the PDP for the forthcoming governorship election in the state.
It was also gathered that since the PDP candidates, including Governor Ortom and his predecessor, Dr Gabriel Suswam, lost their Senate bid to APC there have been series of meetings in Government House with political blocks to strategise on how they would win the governorship and state assembly elections.
In Kaduna State, if the feelers are anything to go by the main opposition party, PDP might have an upper hand and possibly produce the governor of the state.
This is a sequel to the party’s performance in the presidential and National Assembly elections.
In the February 25 elections, PDP did not only win the presidential election in the state; it swept the three senatorial seats and won 10 out of the 16 House of Representatives seats, leaving the APC with four seats and the Labour Party with two seats.
The PDP won in 14 local government areas of the state, while the ruling APC won in only two local governments areas, with the LP winning in 7 local governments.
Although the outcome of the February 25 election may not be a major determinant in the governorship election, it will certainly play a major impact on who wins among the two major contenders, APC’s Senator Uba Sani and PDP’s Isah Ashiru Kudan.
However, NNPP’s Senator Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi and Labour Party’s Jonathan Asake canno be taken for granted in the coming governorship election.
Currently in the state, there is horse trading, with governorship candidates of smaller parties stepping down and endorsing the candidates of either the PDP or the APC, even as the candidate of the PDP is enjoying more of such endorsements.
Muslim-Muslim Ticket: APC National Vice Chair Demands Adamu, Omisore’s Resignation
National vice chairman (North-West) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mallam Salihu Lukman, has asked party leaders replace national chairman of the party, Sen Abdullahi Adamu as part of measures to balance the Muslim-Muslim ticket after the emergence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president-elect.
Lukman also called for the removal of the party’s national secretary, Iyiola Omisore, to appease party supporters in Osun after the party was roundly defeated in both the governorship and presidential elections in the state.
The former director general of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) had last week asked Tinubu to carry out internal reforms in the party as soon as he assumed office as president.
In a statement he issued on Friday titled, “APC Internal Dynamics and the Future of Democracy,” Lukman said Adamu must resign as APC national chairman to pave the way for a Christian to lead the party.
He warned against pitfalls in the process of forming the next federal government by ensuring a broadly inclusive government post May 29, 2023 under the leadership of Tinubu as president.
According to him, for that to happen, APC needs to acknowledge the groundswell of grievances both within the party and the country, with a view to addressing most of the challenges in the next federal government.
Noting that the process of producing candidates for 2023 elections itself created so many disputes within the party, Lukman said, “With a National Chairman, Sen. Abdullahi Adamu, who is also a Muslim, it will be important that every necessary step is taken to inject a change of leadership for the party so that a new National Chairman who is a Christian take over. Part of the advantage of this is that the National Chairman could be retained in North-Central.”
He acknowledged that Adamu has done an excellent job in managing a successful campaign to win the 2023 election with all the attendant challenges, adding however that there should be no difficulty in convincing him to resign as national chairman to create opportunity for a new national chairman of the Christian extraction to emerge.
He said, “For that to happen may require an Emergency National Convention because if the hierarchy of the current leadership is to be followed, the successor to Sen. Adamu will be Sen. Abubakar Kyari who is a Muslim from North-east.”
Also demanding the removal of Omisore as national secretary, Lukman said there is the need to also recognise that the case of Omisore had become a source of stronger dispute in Osun State.
He said, “Unfortunately, rather than serving as a unifying factor for the party leadership in Osun State, Sen. Omisore is more a divisive factor, which may have been responsible for why APC lost the 2022 Governorship election to a political mediocre whose only qualification in politics may appear to be comic dancing skill.
“To save Osun State and bring it back to its old standard of national political reckoning, Sen. Omisore would need to resign as National Secretary of APC, and a new unifying National Secretary elected. Beyond Sen. Omisore, similarly, any member of the National Working Committee of the party who is not a unifying leader in his/her state should be changed.”
The APC chieftain said the party must take seriously the challenge of reconciling its members across the country and recalibrated party leadership with a new National Chairman.
“APC must never make the mistake of proceeding with the task of constituting the Asiwaju-led federal government based on business-as-usual strategy. The opportunity of constituting the Federal Government led by Asiwaju Tinubu must be used strategically to reconcile the APC with Nigerians.
“Every sacrifice must be made by every leader of the party to create the condition for an Asiwaju Tinubu led Federal Government to emerge with strong legitimacy and wider support base by Nigerians.
“In fact, since 2015, many disputes arising from internal party primary to produce candidates for elections have been snowballing and rolling into next electoral contests. Although under the leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari, these disputes were not allowed to undermine the electoral viability of the party, inability to resolve these internal disputes, combined with problems associated with guaranteeing inclusive politics in the country may destroy APC’s electoral viability in future elections.
“While it is important to avoid witch-hunting individual leaders of the party for their role during the primary that produced candidates for 2023 elections, including those who supported or campaigned against Asiwaju Tinubu, it is important as a matter of strategy to broaden the scope of opportunity to rectify the outlook of the party and use it to also project the politics of an Asiwaju Tinubu led Federal Government as being inclusive.
“Also, learning from PDP’s mistake of insensitivity whereby the inability to align the outlook of the leadership of the party with the standard bearer of the party for the 2023 Presidential race, which became a source of deep-seated animosity among party leaders, it is important that APC, even before May 29, 2023 when Asiwaju will be sworn in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, take every step to rectify any situation that may be used to continue divisive campaigns and propaganda against the APC and its control of Federal Government.”
Lukman further recommended that the offices of Senate president and Speaker House of Representatives would have to be locked because the occupants of the two offices are from North East and South West where the president-elect and vice president-elect hail from.
He noted that the offices of Senate president and Speaker of the House should be zoned to North-West, South-East or South-South, even as he said the Speaker should be zoned to the North-West zone which gave Tinubu the highest votes of 2,950,393 representing 33.6% of the votes he got.
He said, “Given that the President and Vice President are from South-West and North-East respectively, nobody from either of these two regions should aspire for any of these offices. Opportunists may argue that in the last four years, the South-West also produced the Vice President and Speaker of the House of Representatives. We must correct this kind of lop-sided reality as a strategic approach to dousing ethnic and religious tension in the country.
“With a National Chairman from the North-Central and hopefully a Christian, the North-Central too should also be excluded from aspiring for either the position of Senate President or Speaker of the House of Representatives.
“Accordingly, the positions of Senate President and Speaker House of Representatives should be zoned to North-West, South-East or South-South. With a Muslim President and a Muslim Vice President, it is only logical to zone the Senate President who is the number three ranking leader of government to either the South-East or South-South who would be Christian.
“Logically, the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives should be zoned to the North-West. This would have the advantage of acknowledging that the North-West gave Asiwaju Tinubu the highest votes of 2,950,393 representing 33.6% of the votes he won. All other positions in government can be assigned by taking bearing from that.
“While it may be important to consider including the position of Secretary to Government Federation (SGF) as part of positions to be zoned, Asiwaju Tinubu must avoid the mistake of undermining his government by appointing politicians with zero experience in managing public service institutions to serve as SGF.
“The office of SGF is in fact the brainbox of the government and once a wrong person is appointed into such a position, the delivery capacity of the government will be weak. Therefore, the choice of where the SGF will come from is as important as the qualification and public service experience of any person to be considered.
“Achieving all these would require institutionalised consultations and negotiations involving structures of the party. Asiwaju Tinubu as the new leader of APC should challenge party leadership to make all structures of the party functional in line with provisions of the constitution of the party.”
