Tinubu Edges Obi In Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll

President Bola Tinubu has taken the lead over Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll.

The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final dataset.

Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi received 23,402 responses, or 33.86 per cent.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total.

The result put Tinubu 1,067 responses ahead of Obi, a difference of about 1.54 percentage points.

The results across the states, however, differed significantly from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu, who won 12 states in the 2023 election, led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the online poll.

Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest number of responses in eight states.

Some of the biggest changes were recorded in northern states, where Tinubu led in areas won by other candidates in 2023.

He led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, three states won by Atiku in the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu also led in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won the presidential election in 2023.

By geopolitical zone, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central.

Obi had his strongest results in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku led in the North-East.

In the South-West, Tinubu received 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of the region’s total.

He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, representing 43.10 per cent of the responses recorded in the zone.

In the North-Central, Tinubu received 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the regional total.

Obi performed best in the South-East, where he received 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the region’s total.

He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, accounting for 41.48 per cent of the responses recorded in the region.

Atiku led in the North-East with 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of the region’s total.

Despite Tinubu leading in more states and three geopolitical zones, the national race remained close, with only 1,067 responses separating him from Obi.

Some states recorded even smaller differences among the leading candidates.

In Kogi, for instance, Tinubu received 39 responses, Atiku 38 and Obi 33 out of a total of 110 responses.

The one-response difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Kogi shows the importance of considering the small number of responses recorded in the state when assessing the figures.

In the FCT, Tinubu received 5,599 responses, compared with 5,278 for Obi and 3,954 for Atiku. Tinubu therefore led Obi by 321 responses.

In Rivers State, Tinubu polled 975 responses, while Obi received 892 and Atiku 568, giving Tinubu an 83-response lead over Obi.

Among the other candidates, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor received six, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two responses.

Another 638 participants selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet”, while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate”.

The results showed that leading the national poll did not necessarily mean winning in every geopolitical zone or state.

While Tinubu led nationally and in three geopolitical zones, Obi dominated the South-East and South-South, while Atiku had the strongest result in the North-East.

However, the number of responses was heavily concentrated in Lagos and the FCT, which together accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses.

The final dataset also included 56 responses from Nigerians in the diaspora. These were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical zone totals.