A new security report released by Nextier Advisory Ltd has claimed that violent conflicts across Nigeria claimed a total of 4,654 lives in 2025, while 3,141 persons were kidnapped in 1,274 incidents nationwide.
The figures were contained in the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2025 report in Abuja yesterday, highlighting worsening insecurity fuelled by terrorism, banditry and communal clashes.
Presenting the report titled, “Nigeria Security and Conflict Outlook 2026: When Capability Meets Resolve,” the managing partner of Nextier, Dr Ndubuisi Nwokolo, said banditry emerged as the deadliest driver of violence in the country.
Nwokolo disclosed that banditry accounted for 599 incidents and 2,724 deaths in 2025, representing a sharp increase from 256 incidents and 1,585 fatalities recorded in 2024.
He said the North-West recorded the highest number of banditry attacks, while the North-Central zone witnessed higher fatalities, indicating rising brutality in the region.
The report also showed that kidnapping reached alarming levels, with 3,141 victims recorded, marking one of the highest figures in recent years.
It noted a surge in mass abductions carried out by armed groups, particularly in vulnerable rural communities.
The report further revealed that terrorism and insurgency intensified during the year, with 43 terror-related incidents recorded. Borno State remained the epicentre, accounting for 397 casualties.
It added that farmer-herder clashes rose significantly from 58 incidents and 188 deaths in 2024 to 87 incidents and 322 fatalities in 2025.
According to the report, climate stress, ethnic tensions, political factors and banditry contributed to the escalation of the farmer-herder conflicts.
Nextier also identified illicit mining as a major source of funding for criminal networks, revealing that a notorious bandit leader, Kachalla Mati, allegedly earns up to N300 million weekly from illegal gold sales.
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons, porous borders and instability in the Sahel region were also identified as key enablers of violence.
The organisation warned that insecurity may worsen in 2026, citing growing alliances between terrorists and bandits, expansion of armed groups into states such as Kwara and Kano, and rising political tensions ahead of the 2027 general elections.
It projected that election-related violence, cult clashes, communal disputes and gunmen attacks would remain regionally concentrated but increasingly lethal.
The report further linked economic pressures, youth unemployment and inflation to Nigeria’s deteriorating security environment.
Nextier urged the federal government to strengthen intelligence coordination, community policing and collaboration with international partners to curb escalating threats.
The report identified at least 14 major threat clusters fuelling instability nationwide, including terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, secessionist unrest, communal violence and illegal mining activities.
It stressed that Nigeria’s security challenges are interconnected and worsened by weak intelligence-sharing, governance gaps, and economic hardship.
The organisation advised the Nigerian Armed Forces and intelligence agencies to strengthen intelligence management and operational security to prevent information leaks and improve counter-terrorism operations.
It also called on the Department of State Services and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to intensify financial surveillance to dismantle ransom payment networks linked to kidnapping and banditry.
On farmer-herder conflicts, the report recommended the full implementation of livestock reforms, including the National Livestock Transformation Plan, alongside early warning systems and dialogue between farmers and herders.
Nextier criticised what it described as a reactive electoral security approach, urging the adoption of preventive conflict strategies and reconciliation mechanisms after election violence.
Delivering a keynote address, Deputy Inspector-General of Police in charge of Research and Planning, Idegwu Basil Okuoma, represented by Commissioner of Police Edwin Ogbehagha, said the report provides critical insights into Nigeria’s security realities.
He said the document challenges security agencies, policymakers and stakeholders to bridge the gap between government capacity and citizens’ security experiences.
Okuoma said the Nigeria Police Force was strengthening intelligence gathering, planning, training and collaboration with other security agencies.
He noted that security should not be measured only by arrests or deployments but by whether citizens feel safe.
On behalf of the Chief of Air Staff, Air Commodore Adejimi, the director of Enabling Operations, said the Nigerian Air Force remains committed to restoring peace through sustained aerial operations.
He said strategic discussions and research insights were critical to shaping military operations and long-term stability.
Also, the deputy head of Delegation and head of Political, Press and Information, Zissimo Vergos, stressed that security requires a whole-of-society approach.
Vergos said communities, traditional and religious leaders, civil society groups and the media must collaborate with security agencies to prevent violence and strengthen local resilience.
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