Nigeria’s upstream oil sector is experiencing a significant decline in crude oil losses from theft and metering issues, reaching the lowest levels the industry has seen since 2009. According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily losses fell to 9,600 barrels per day (bpd) in July 2025, marking a milestone in the fight against oil theft and inefficiencies.
Year-to-date figures for January through July 2025 show that 2.04 million barrels were lost, averaging about 9,960 bpd, a sharp drop from previous years. This figure represents a 50.2% reduction compared to the 2024 calendar year, when losses were recorded at 4.1 million barrels or 11,300 bpd.
The improvement is even more striking when compared to 2021, the peak year in recent history for crude losses. In 2021, Nigeria lost an estimated 37.6 million barrels—averaging 102,900 bpd—the highest level recorded in nearly 23 years. Since then, losses have steadily declined: to 20.9 million barrels (57,200 bpd) in 2022, 4.3 million barrels (11,900 bpd) in 2023, and further to 4.1 million barrels (11,300 bpd) in 2024.
The NUPRC attributed this progress to a combination of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies implemented under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021. The Commission strengthened its collaboration with security agencies, operators, and local communities to stop illegal crude activities.
To further strengthen control, the NUPRC, under the leadership of the Commission chief executive, Gbenga Komolafe, approved 37 new oil evacuation routes to combat oil theft.
On the regulatory side, NUPRC has conducted extensive metering audits at upstream facilities to ensure accurate reporting of production and exports.
To tighten control over crude evacuation, NUPRC also approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes, explicitly designed to reduce opportunities for theft.
The Commission’s concerted efforts have delivered a dramatic 94.57 per cent reduction in crude oil losses compared to 2021 levels, underscoring a decisive turnaround for Nigeria’s upstream oil sector after years of chronic losses. The downward trend points to increasing industry compliance and improved operational oversight, boosting revenue prospects for the country.
As Nigeria moves closer to eliminating crude oil losses, these gains strengthen confidence in the sector’s governance and its critical role in national economic growth.
