TCN Ready For 10,000mw But Where Is The Electricity?

In a bold declaration that has raised eyebrows across the energy sector, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) announced last week that it stands ready to evacuate up to 10,000 megawatts (mw) of electricity across the country. The only catch? The generation companies (GenCos) need to actually produce it first.

This revelation came during a ‘Meet the Press’ briefing at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, where TCN managing director, Engr. Sule Abdulaziz, confirmed that the company’s current transmission capacity sits at an impressive 8,500mw. For context, Nigeria’s peak power generation for 2025 reached just 5,801mw on March 4.

“We are still ahead of what is generated,” Abdulaziz confidently stated. “With the projects we are doing, in two years, we will be able to transmit 10,000mw if it is produced by the GenCos.”

The operative word here is “if” – a small word carrying the weight of Nigeria’s decades-long power challenges.

To be sure, TCN deserves credit for the strides it has made. The company has undertaken significant infrastructure expansions, with federal government’s investments going toward new substations and transmission lines nationwide. This is no small feat in a sector plagued by underinvestment and bureaucratic bottlenecks.

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Trust our power sector operators to consistently point fingers in other directions. For years, GenCos blamed transmission constraints for their inability to generate at full capacity. Now, the script has flipped, with TCN essentially saying, “We’ve done our part – where’s the electricity?”

This development represents a significant shift in Nigeria’s power narrative. For the first time in recent memory, transmission capacity exceeds generation – a situation few would have predicted even five years ago. It highlights how uneven development across the power value chain can create new bottlenecks even as old ones are resolved.

The TCN boss also provided updates on the long-awaited Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system, which has reached 69 percent completion. “From our work programme, in six months’ time, we are going to finish SCADA,” he promised. “By the time we have that SCADA completed, we will be able to see in real-time whatever is happening on the grid.”

I’d normally take such promises with a grain of salt given our history with missed deadlines, but Abdulaziz’s disclosure that most equipment is already installed at the new Gwagwalada substation suggests meaningful progress. If completed, SCADA would revolutionise Nigeria’s grid management, enabling immediate responses to disruptions before they cascade into nationwide blackouts.

Perhaps most impressive is TCN’s achievement in reducing grid disturbances by 76.47 percent over the past five years – a remarkable feat considering they’ve been operating without SCADA. To compensate, TCN developed the Generation Load Drop Sensitivity system, which detects and responds to sudden drops in power generation.

Ok, let’s put it this way – what if TCN’s transmission capacity continues to expand while generation stagnates? We may find ourselves in the peculiar situation where transmission is no longer the weakest link in our electricity value chain. This would require a fundamental rethinking of investment priorities and policy incentives to boost generation capacity.

The announcement of a potential Super Grid initiative, with Chinese companies expressing interest in constructing additional transmission lines, further underscores TCN’s ambitions. These additional lines would provide redundancy, allowing power to be rerouted during faults without customers noticing interruptions.

I completely agree that a robust transmission network is essential for Nigeria’s power sector development. However, the elephant in the room remains: what good is 10,000mw of transmission capacity if we can’t generate beyond 6,000mw?

The root causes of our generation constraints are well-known – gas supply challenges, aging infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, liquidity issues in the electricity market, and regulatory uncertainties. Addressing these will require coordinated action across multiple agencies and private sector players.

Consequently, while TCN’s progress deserves commendation, it also highlights the need for similar advancements in other segments of the electricity value chain. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and that link now appears to be shifting from transmission to generation.

The digitisation and automation of all TCN substations represents another significant milestone in modernising our grid infrastructure. These upgrades are crucial for reducing technical losses and improving the overall reliability of electricity supply.

Government’s continued investment in transmission infrastructure, at a time when many state-owned enterprises have been privatised, underscores the strategic importance of this segment. TCN remains fully government-owned, with Abdulaziz confirming that “all transmission investments come from the federal government.”

The announcement that federal projects have already added 1,350mw to the grid demonstrates tangible progress. However, for consumers still experiencing regular outages, these improvements may seem abstract without corresponding increases in actual power delivery to homes and businesses.

For Nigeria to truly harness the benefits of expanded transmission capacity, complementary investments in generation and distribution are essential. The question now is whether the GenCos can rise to the challenge and produce the 10,000mw that TCN claims it will soon be able to handle?

As we await developments in the coming months, one thing is clear – Nigeria’s journey toward reliable electricity supply has entered a new phase. The bottleneck is shifting, priorities must adjust accordingly, and everyone in the value chain must pull their weight if Nigerians are to finally enjoy the stable power supply they deserve.