The Net-zero Transition, Costs And Benefits

Global net zero emissions describes the state where emissions of carbon dioxide due to human activities and removals of these gases are in balance over a given period. It is often called simply net zero. Put simply, net zero means cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere, by oceans and forests for instance.

Prof. Joseph Legend Mfon said that in order to avert the worst impacts of climate change and preserve a livable planet, global temperature increase needs to be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. He said currently, the Earth is already about 1.1°C warmer than it was in the late 1800s, and emissions continue to rise. To keep global warming to no more than 1.5°C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

The greater number of years of continuous and accelerating progress have brought human civilization to the point of threatening the very condition that made that progress possible: the stability of the earth’s climate. The physical manifestations of a changing climate are increasingly visible across the globe, as are their socioeconomic impacts. These impacts will continue to grow, most likely in a nonlinear way, until the world transitions to a net-zero economy, and unless it adapts to a changing climate in the meantime. No wonder, then, that an ever-greater number of governments and companies are committing to accelerate climate action. The government of Nigeria must show greater commitments to climate change abatement procedures.

Prof. Joseph Legend Mfon said at present, though, the net-zero equation remains unsolved: greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and are not counter balanced by removals, nor is the world prepared to complete the net-zero transition. He said, even if all net-zero commitments and national climate pledges were fulfilled, research suggests that warming would not be held to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, increasing the odds of initiating the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, including the risk of biotic feedback loops. Moreover, most of these commitments have yet to be backed by detailed plans or executed. Nor would execution be easy: solving the net-zero equation cannot be divorced from pursuing economic development and inclusive growth. He said this would require a careful balancing of the shorter-term risks of poorly prepared or uncoordinated action with the longer-term risks of insufficient or delayed action. Indeed, a more disorderly transition could impair energy supply and affect energy access and affordability, especially for lower-income households and regions. It could also have knock-on impacts on the economy more broadly, potentially creating a backlash that would slow down the transition.

None of these challenges should come as a surprise. Achieving net zero would mean a fundamental transformation of the Nigeria economy and the world at large, as it would require significant changes to the seven energy and land-use systems that produce the world’s emissions: power, industry, mobility, buildings, agriculture, forestry and other land use, and waste. To bring about these changes, nine key requirements (encompassing physical building blocks, economic and societal adjustments, and governance, institutions, and commitment) would need to be fulfilled against the backdrop of many economic and political challenges in our dear country.

This means addressing dozens of complex questions, including: what is the appropriate mix of technologies that need to be deployed to achieve emissions reductions while staying within a carbon budget, limiting costs, and delivering required standards of performance? Where are supply chain and infrastructure bottlenecks most likely to occur? Where might physical constraints, whether related to the availability of natural resources or the scale-up of production capacity, limit the pace of the transition? What levels of spending on physical assets would the transition require? Who would pay for the transition? How would the transition affect companies’ markets and operations? What would it spell for workers and consumers? What opportunities and risks would it create for companies and countries?

And how could consumers be encouraged to make changes to consumption and spending habits that will be necessary to ensure the transition?

Prof. Joseph Legend Mfon attempt to answer some of these questions, namely, those pertaining to the economic and societal adjustments. This will include providing estimates of the economic changes that would take place in a net-zero transition consistent with 1.5°C of warming. To build and expand upon the vast external literature on the net-zero transition, in order to offer a more detailed and granular view of the nature and magnitude of the economic changes that it would entail. As a result, our estimates of the annual spending on physical assets for a net-zero transition exceed to a meaningful degree the total spending estimates that previous analyses have produced.

Prof. Joseph Legend Mfon with nonetheless hope that the scenario-based analysis will help decision makers refine their understanding of the nature and the magnitude of the changes the net-zero transition would entail and the scale of response needed to manage it. He hope that every attempts to describe as accurately as we can the challenges that lie ahead are seen as what they are: a call to the Federal Government of Nigeria for more thoughtful and more decisive action, urgency, and resolve.

Prof. Joseph Legend Mfon said as a country, we have a single mission; to own, protect and hand on the planet to the next generation without being blamed. The pathway to net-zero transition is strict adherence to the unwavering commitments to the United Nations regulatory framework.

Prof. Mfon is the Country Director, United Nations SDG Network.