The Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative (GMI), a group supporting President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid, has predicted that divisions among opposition parties and the distribution of votes across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones could shape the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.

The group argued that the opposition’s failure to form a united coalition could weaken its chances against Tinubu, whose supporters say his political alliances across the country could give the ruling party an advantage.

GMI’s National Coordinator, Samaila Musa, stated this in a political assessment of the emerging electoral landscape, identifying former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso as key figures in the opposition landscape.

Musa claimed that Atiku would struggle to secure significant support in the southern states, arguing that political alignments in the South-East and South-West could favour Tinubu.

He also projected that Kwankwaso could attract votes in Kano and Jigawa states, as well as make gains in Katsina, potentially splitting votes that might otherwise go to Atiku in the North-West.

“The North-West vote split” would weaken the opposition’s chances, Musa argued, adding that the North-East and North-Central regions would also be critical battlegrounds.

He said divisions among opposition candidates across the regions could prevent them from building the national voting bloc needed to defeat the incumbent.

Musa further argued that a presidential candidate could not rely solely on northern votes to win the election, citing former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eventual victory in 2015 after building an alliance with Tinubu and securing support beyond the North.

However, GMI’s projections reflect the group’s political assessment and support for Tinubu, rather than an independently established forecast of the 2027 election outcome.

The group said it supported the participation of all candidates, including Obi and Kwankwaso, arguing that voters should have the opportunity to assess their policies and records.

Musa also disclosed that GMI had activated its grassroots structures across the country’s 774 local government areas to mobilise support for Tinubu’s re-election.

He attributed the president’s electoral prospects to what he described as his economic reforms and broad political alliances.

“President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set to secure a decisive victory in the coming election,” Musa said, adding that the opposition’s internal divisions could undermine its ability to challenge the ruling party.

He maintained that Tinubu’s nationwide political coalition remained strong, while opposition figures risked losing support to competing candidates.

The 2027 presidential election is expected to feature intense competition among political parties as they seek to build alliances and secure support across the country’s six geopolitical zones.