National Population: Birth Rates Fluctuate Across States In 3 Years

Birth rates in Nigeria have fluctauted in some states of the federation in the past three years.

Investigation by LEADERSHIP Sunday revealed that the new trend is a significant shift in the pattern of birth rates, which is always on the spiral side.

This came amidst worsening living conditions among Nigerians.

Population, health, family planning and nutrition experts who expressed concern over the development, feared that country’s population could decline in the coming years.

Data gathered on birth rates from general hospitals and university teaching hospitals in 14 states of the federation showed fluctuations in the number of live births.

The experts asserted that faced with financial constraints, the non-affordability of quality healthcare services, and social amenities, educated couples may be forced to reduce the number of their children.

LEADERSHIP Sunday gathered statistics on birth rates between 2023 and 2025 from three general hospitals and a university teaching hospital in each state.

Some offices and the headquarters of the National Population Commission (NPC) in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the affected states also provided data on the population trend. However, the commission’s official figures were done in 2021, while those from the states were piecemeal.

The NPC data showed fluctuations in fertility rates, raising questions about a possible link between financial hardship and reproductive patterns.

According to the NPC, the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) recorded an average fertility rate of 5.0 per cent children per woman of reproductive age (15-49). By 2018, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) rate rose to 5.3 percent but declined to 4.8 percent in 2021.

Data sourced from Worldometer’s elaboration of the latest United Nations’ Data (www worldometer.info) on Nigeria’s population between the year 2000 and March 2025 showed that as of March 2025, the country has 237,527,782 citizens with a yearly percentage change of 2.08 per cent while in 2024 the nation’s population was 232,679,478 with a yearly percentage change of 2.10.

Others were 2023, 227,882,945 – 2.12 per cent; 2022 accounted for 223,150,896 – 2.11 per cent; 2020 was 213,996,181 – 2.15 per cent; 2015 recorded 190,671,878 – 2.73 per cent; 2010 population was 166,642,886 – 2.82 per cent; 2005 was 145,017,253 – 2.79 per cent, and 2000 had 126,382,494 with 2.66 percentage change.

Nigeria last held a census in November 2006. The figures above are an elaboration of data by the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision).

An official of the NPC told LEADERSHIP Sunday on condition of anonymity that the agency conducts these surveys every five years to track demographic changes. The recent decline in fertility rates, he said, could be linked to economic realities affecting household decisions.

“Families are reconsidering the number of children they can cater for, especially as living costs continue to rise,” he stated.

Since 2015, Nigeria has faced economic instability marked by inflation, job losses, and high living costs. These pressures have strained household incomes, making it harder for families to provide for children, he said.

While economic hardship often leads to lower fertility rates, cultural and religious influences in Nigeria continue to encourage large families.

The increase from 5.0 per cent in 2015 to 5.3 per cent in 2018 suggests that economic challenges did not immediately impact birth rates, possibly due to limited access to contraceptives or delayed economic effects on family planning decisions.

However, by 2021, the drop to 4.8 per cent may indicate that prolonged financial strains had begun influencing reproductive choices.

Consequently, experts warned that the country’s continued economic hardship could have long-term consequences for fertility rates, maternal health, and child welfare.

An agricultural engineer, Isaac Jonathan, said the rising costs of healthcare, education, and housing might push more families toward smaller household sizes.

He said, “The cost of raising a child keeps increasing. Parents now think twice before having more children because they struggle to provide for the ones they already have. If economic hardship persists, we may continue to see a gradual decline in birth rates.”

Jonathan, therefore, urged policymakers to focus on improving access to family planning, implementing economic relief programmes, and strengthening healthcare services to help families make informed reproductive choices.

In Kano State, the statistics made available to our reporter by senior medical personnel at the Murtala Mohammed Specialist Hospital indicated a drop in childbirth from 2023 -2024.

According to the official, the hospital recorded 12,147 total child deliveries in 2023 and 9,422 in 2024.

The officials at the Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, the NPC office in Kano, and the Nasarawa Hospital refused to make the figures available.

In Akwa Ibom State, checks revealed that the prevailing hard times have many couples wary of giving birth to more children.

At the University of Uyo Teaching Hospital (UUTH), the General Hospital in Etim Ekpo local government area, and some homes of traditional birth attendants, patronage for childbirths has been low compared to the last couple of years.

UUTH chief medical director, Prof. EmemAbasi Bassey, explained that facilities at the institution’s maternity wards were no longer overstretched due to frequent child births, adding that “we are even begging them to come and deliver here.”

In the same vein, Madam Cecilia Otu, a traditional birth attendant in the Ibiono Ibom local government area, lamented that the business had been in a lull due to “birth control measures by most couples due to hard times.”

In Rivers State, records obtained from the State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH) revealed that 3,054 children were delivered in the facility between 2023 and January 2025.

The records indicated that 1,998 children were delivered in 2023 and 1,024 in 2024, indicating a decline in the state’s birth rate.

The records also showed that 32 babies were delivered in the hospital in January 2025.

A medical doctor, Dr Princewill Iyalla, attributed the decline in the birth rate to the country’s current economic situation.

Iyalla said, “A decrease in birth rate in Rivers State is likely due to a combination of factors, but this current economic situation in the country is a major factor.

“High cost of living and unemployment can influence decisions to have fewer children due to concerns about financial burdens.”

Meanwhile, there is a noticeable jump in death registrations. While the state recorded 29,451 deaths in 2020, followed by slight fluctuations in subsequent years, 2023 saw a significant jump to 48,040 deaths.

By 2024, only 990 deaths were registered due to the shift to digital records.

The grand total of live births and deaths registered in the state from 2020 to 2024 is 14.3 million and 131,149, respectively.

The sudden changes in 2024 have raised questions about the effectiveness of the new registration system and its ability to accurately capture demographic trends in the state.

Experts warn that underreporting could have long-term implications for planning in sectors such as healthcare, education, and social services.

In Katsina State, a significant increase in birth and death rates has been recorded over the past five years, according to data from the NPC.

From 2020 to 2023, the number of live births steadily increased, reflecting either a natural rise in population or improvements in birth registration efforts.

However, a sharp decline in 2024 was attributed to the shift to digital registration, raising concerns about data accuracy and reporting challenges.

In 2020, the NPC registered 25.7 million live births in Katsina, which rose to 32.5 million in 2021. The upward trend continued in 2022, reaching 38.8 million, before peaking at 45.4 million in 2023.

Despite economic challenges, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, and insecurity, these figures suggest that fertility rates remained high.

Experts believe that strong cultural and social norms favouring large families contributed to the steady increase.

However, in 2024, the number of registered births in the state plummeted to just 1,575. The NPC attributed this drastic drop to the transition to digital registration, which may have disrupted data collection.

 

Reports from Enugu State between 2023 and 2024, revealed that the birth rate increased.

 

It was gathered that the number of births during the period under review increased by more than 3 percent of the state’s 4,690,100 population.

 

The chairman of the Nigeria Medical Association, Enugu State Chapter, Dr Sunny Okafor, told our correspondent that absolute birth counts are unlikely to reduce as babies are being born daily.

 

He, however, stressed that the birth rate would likely decrease owing to increasing literacy levels and the availability of family planning services.

 

He added that economic issues including hardships and desire to maintain small family size and improved access to healthcare services, especially antenatal care and emergency obstetrics services could also lead to decline in birth rates.

 

In Lagos State, the director of NPC, Bamidele Sadiku, revealed that Nigeria’s estimated population currently stands at 216,783,381, with 16,705,671 children under the age of five and 3,554,005 children under the age of one. He attributed the figures to NPC’s 2022 report.

 

Sadiku explained that the NPC operates 4,000 civil registration centres across the 774 local government areas (LGAs) in the 36 states, and Abuja. The centres are responsible for documenting births and other vital statistics, ensuring accurate demographic data for national planning.

 

The data from the 2021 edition of Spotlight on Lagos Statistics also highlighted the number of live births recorded in secondary health facilities across Lagos State.

 

The figures indicate a fluctuating birth rate over recent years: 27,936 live births in 2017, 28,113 live births in 2018, 29,133 live births in 2019, and 28,057 live births in 2020.

 

Amid these statistics, which are far from the current situation, stakeholders have raised concerns about Nigeria’s rapid population growth and socio-economic implications. They warned that while a large population can be an asset, it presents significant challenges, including insecurity, unemployment, poverty, and poor health indices.

 

The chairman of the Public Health Sustainable Advocacy Initiative (PHSAI), Barrister Ayo Adebusoye, told LEADERSHIP Sunday that there is an urgent need to address Nigeria’s demographic trajectory. He noted that by 2030, Nigeria is projected to have the fourth-largest population in the world, necessitating strategic action to ensure sustainable growth.

 

“Nigeria must focus on managing its population growth by increasing access to voluntary and quality family planning services,” Adebusoye stated.

 

In Kwara State, a total number of 95,565 births was recorded in 2023, comprising 47, 980 females and 4 7,585 males.

 

Also a total number of 105,692 births were recorded in 2024, comprising 52,707 males and 52,985 females.

 

The data were obtained from the Ilorin office of the NPC.

 

In Bauchi State, the birth rates for 2023 to 2025 have raised concerns among stakeholders as the state grapples with mounting pressure on its healthcare and education sectors.

 

The data showed a sharp rise in birth registrations, reflecting the high fertility rate of 7.2% reported in the 2023 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). This figure, one of the highest in Nigeria, underscored the demographic boom that, Dr. Ibrahim Mohammed, a health expert, warned could exacerbate the state’s socioeconomic challenges if not managed properly.

 

“We are seeing more women coming in for deliveries, but our resources and manpower are not keeping pace,” Mohammed said.

 

Mohammed Uwais, an economist at the Federal Polytechnic, Bauchi, also warned about the demographic surge’s long-term implications, noting that the increasing dependency ratio is a critical concern.

 

“With more mouths to feed and limited job opportunities, household incomes are being stretched thin,” he said.

 

In Ebonyi State, reports indicated that despite the current economic hardship ravaging the people, especially rural dwellers, the number of children born between 2023 and now has increased.

 

Data obtained by our reporter at the Alex Ekwueme Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, the NPC Ebonyi State, General Hospital, Okposi, and Aghameghu MGGs in the Ebonyi local government area revealed that between 2023 and 2025, the number of children born at the different health facilities in the state increased.

 

At the Alex Ekwueme Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, 1,566 new births were recorded in 2023, with 2,344 recorded in 2024. At the General Hospital Okposi, 14 newborns were recorded in 2023 and 25 in 2024. At the Aghameghu MDGs, 15 births were recorded in 2023 and 16 in 2024. .

 

In an interview with LEADERSHIP Sunday, a midwife, Mrs. Ujunwa Ibekwe, attributed the increase in the number of births in the state to the high level of polygamy in Ebonyi, especially in Ebonyi North and Central zones.

 

Despite existing laws, it was gathered that thousands of babies born in Oyo State are not registered.

 

A source at the University College Hospital said with many mothers delivering their babies either at home or primary healthcare centres (PHCs), it is an undeniable fact that most births go unregistered.

 

He said, coupled with heightened sensitisation, this resulted in a slight increase in birth registration from 30 per cent to an average of 35.2 per cent.

 

The source said the birth and death registrations have remained a major issue tugging at the heart of Nigeria’s development plan, with many births taking place, especially in the hinterlands, without being documented by the authorities.

 

Over 70 per cent of births take place in rural communities outside healthcare facilities and without any form of documentation,

 

The PHCs, largely located in rural areas, are bedevilled by a lack of medical equipment, drugs, qualified personnel, an electrical system, beds, and road networks. These issues affect the number of children’s hospitals in the country, which is not sufficient to meet the healthcare needs of a rapidly growing population of Nigerians.

 

The expert said the effects of the problems were self-evident—insecurity and poverty remain intractable in Nigeria, with 133 million citizens living in multidimensional poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

 

The birth rate in Imo State increased marginally from 2023 to 2025.

 

The statistics obtained from the office of Chief Medical Director Dr Kingsley Achigbu indicated that the birth rate was 3.25 per cent per annum from a population of 5,459,300, representing an increase of about 10.2 per cent over three years.

 

The state remains one of Nigeria’s most densely populated states, contributing significantly to the nation’s population.

 

In the data obtained from the NPC in Imo, Prof. Uba Nnabue said the population in 2023 was 3,927,563 during the enumeration exercise. However, the data revealed that in 2024, the birth rate had grown significantly to 5,408,756.

 

Projections suggest that in 2025, the population of Imo State will rise to 6,013,800. This shows an increase of about 10.1 per cent from the 2023 estimate.

 

With an annual growth rate of 3.25 percent, the state is expected to continue experiencing demographic changes.

 

In his contribution, a medical expert, Dr. Harold Onumo, advised the state government to establish mechanisms to check the birth rate in relation to the production of economic values and realities.

 

This he submitted would enable sustainability in terms of value chains.

 

According to data obtained from relevant institutions, the hardship residents endured in Osun State may not have significantly affected the birth rate.

 

The data received from the state-owned teaching hospital, the Osun State University Teaching Hospital, Osogbo revealed that 914 children were born in 2023, 960 in 2024 and 126 so far in 2025.

 

The Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, recorded 1,012 births in 2023, 1,025 in 2024, and 138 births as of February 23, 2025.

 

The government-owned General Hospital, Ilesa, recorded 432 births in 2023, 472 in 2024, and 62 so far in 2025.

 

In Jigawa State, there are 20 General Hospitals and over 230 primary healthcare centres across the 27 local government areas.

 

At Jahun General Hospital, 6,742 live births were recorded in 2023 and 6,304 in 2024. At the Birnin Kudu General Hospital, 2,187 births were recorded in 2023, and 1,833 in 2024. The data from the NPC in 2023 was 324,235 live births and 306,215 in 2024.

 

Statistics from the Edo State office at the NPC located Akpakpava in Ikpoba Slope indicated no significant correlation between hardship and birth rate.

 

However, there is no gainsaying that economic hardship in Nigeria can have a significant adverse effect on the mental health and wellbeing of its citizens regardless of birthrate.

 

Dr Orukpe Austin, Head of Department, Technical, NPC Benin, referred our correspondent to statistics conducted by the Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS), which showed that the fertility rate ranged between 5.3 percent and 5.9 percent in the entire South-South between 2023 and 2025.

 

In Edo State, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stood at 3.3 per cent for the year in review, a decrease compared to the general figure for South-South, as sourced from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey.

 

Orukpe, however, noted that the birth rate among urban dwellers was likely to decrease due to enlightenment and accessibility to healthcare compared to those in rural communities.