Should Nigeria End Crude Oil Export?

The increasing appetite among private investors to build and operate crude oil refineries is leading to layers of tension between industry leaders’ interests and the government’s, and exposing disparate policy objectives among regulatory agencies.

More significantly, it raises questions about what constitutes Nigeria’s national interest in the oil industry. Should the various investors making plans to build refineries think twice?

These inconsistencies were recently brought to light when Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said Nigeria does not have spare crude oil to meet domestic demand because of contractual obligations and crude-backed loans.

It all comes down to the government’s priorities: whether to continue its policies of prioritising crude oil exports or developing the midstream industry for refining to meet domestic needs and export products.

Two oil-producing countries that rarely export crude and prefer to feed their local refineries are China and India. The United States and the Gulf countries, on the other hand, produce so much crude that they can meet local refining demands, export refined products, and continue exporting crude oil.

Nigeria has no such luxury. There is tension among Dangote Refinery, NNPCL, and NUPRC on the one hand over crude oil allocations.

On the other hand, Dangote conflicts with NMDPRA over the continued issuance of import licenses for refined products such as PMS and diesel. The question now is, what does Nigeria really want? What best serves the national interest?

And do the objectives of NUPRC and NMDPRA align? Can NUPRC’s Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan and NMDPRA’s Rabiu Umar reconcile competing industry interests to serve the economy and meet Nigeria’s ambition to transform from a crude oil exporter into a major refining and petrochemical hub?

The question becomes more significant when their professional backgrounds and relationships with major industry players are taken into account.

Rabiu Umar, nominated to lead the NMDPRA in April 2026, previously served as a director at Dangote Cement. Before joining Dangote, he held senior positions at Oando, Lafarge Africa, and Ashaka Cement.

Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan is very much an insider with decades of experience at NNPC, including leadership responsibilities in corporate strategy and upstream operations.

NUPRC’s dealings with international oil companies, including Shell, illustrate the competing demands of attracting investment, approving asset transactions, and maximising national value.

Ultimately, Nigeria may not need to choose between Dangote and Shell, or between refining and crude exports. It needs to allow domestic refiners to compete fairly.

But can the regulators coordinate their policies around one objective, ensuring that Nigeria captures the greatest economic value from its oil and gas resources