Rebased GDP: Crop Production, Real Estate Displace Crude As Major Contributors To Economy

Crop production, trade and real estate have emerged as the largest contributors to the economy, displacing crude, in the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), says the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

NBS had earlier said, the rebased GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be officially launched by the end of January 2025.

With 2019 used as the base year, data showed that crude oil and natural gas processing has been displaced by real estate from being third on economic activity, placing it at the fifth position. Telecommunications, construction, food beverages and tobacco, also made the top seven largest contributors to the nation’s economy.

Speaking at the sensitisation workshop on GDP and CPI rebasing organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the NBS in Lagos, statistician general of the federation, Adeyemi Adeniran noted that, the rebasing exercise is designed to ensure that economic indicators accurately reflect the current structure of Nigeria’s economy, “incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating our consumption baskets, and refining our data collection methods. This is our responsibility as the official producer of data in Nigeria.”

He noted that, if Nigeria is to make the desired progress and development, it is imperative that NBS, as the official producer of data, plays its role adequately in providing timely, accurate, and reliable statistics to inform both the public and private sector.

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“Rebasing our GDP and CPI allows us to align with these transformations, providing a more precise and relevant picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape. This process is foundational to informed policymaking, strategic planning, and effective governance; hence, it is one exercise that the NBS is conducting with significant importance and professionalism,” he added.

The NBS had, last year, commenced rebasing the country’s GDP and CPI with the aim of reflecting updated economic conditions as recommended every five years by the United Nations Statistical Commission. The last rebasing occurred in 2014, leading to a significant GDP increase of 89 percent, positioning Nigeria as Africa’s largest economy.

Technical assistant to the statistician general, Moses Waniko, who presented the provisions of the rebasing exercise, explained that, the base year for new provision was 2019 as against the former which was 2010.

According to him, the rebasing covered new areas of the economy including digital economy, activities of modular refineries, pension fund administration, national health insurance scheme, mining among others.

Noting the implications of the rebasing exercise, Uwaniko said, it would allow for economic and development planning, growth trajectory  and increase in the size of the economy. This current exercise will enhance data accuracy and inform better policy-making in light of recent economic shifts, particularly in technology and digital sectors.

“It is good to look at the rebasing from different angles, not just the aggregate numbers, but to look at what those numbers are supposed to tell us, in terms of the distribution, the aggregate numbers, in terms of their weights, contributions and the rest. Beyond that, there are other implications for the national economy, which we have tried to put in this slide. The first is rebasing will provide or allow for an Economic and Development Plan.

“The second is that the rebasing will really help to provide a good trajectory for the economy. So beyond this, it’s important to also state that after the rebasing, there are certain things that we expect that might change, such as changes in the size of the structure of the economy. We expect that the size of the economy will be bigger.

“The tax-to-GDP ratio is something that people may want to see what the numbers would look like. Debt to GDP ratio of 18.5 per cent as of September 2019 could also reduce with the bigger size of the GDP, and then per-capita income will increase after the rebasing,” he said.

In his remarks,  chief executive of the NESG, Tayo Aduloju, said: “Economic (GDP) rebasing, in essence, is a recalibration – an exercise with profound significance and akin to cleaning the lenses through which we view our economy, allowing us to see a clearer, more accurate picture of its structure, size, and potential.

“As economies evolve, new industries emerge, technology transforms markets, and the contributions of different sectors shift, without updated economic measurements, we risk underestimating our true economic capacity. When we embarked on a similar rebasing in 2014, our GDP leapt by nearly 90 per cent, elevating Nigeria’s economy to $510 billion and positioning it ahead of South Africa as the largest economy in Africa. This was not a fabrication; it was a reflection of reality.”