India’s 2024 general elections have shaken the trajectory the planet’s most populous nation has been on for nearly three decades. Right-wing Hindu nationalism, which grew more popular under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, is now in decline, reinforcing the theory that the fifth-largest economy in the world is far too diverse for any single political force to dominate. India will now be bogged down by internal political and economic issues that will limit its ability to project geopolitical influence.
Though it remains the country’s single-largest party, the BJP won only 240 of 543 seats in the lower chamber of the Indian legislature – down from the 303 seats it won in 2019. Modi was able to secure a rare third term as prime minister but not without crucial support from allies in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, which holds a combined 293 seats. The BJP’s main rival, the Indian National Congress – once on the precipice of political oblivion – won 99 seats, nearly double the 52 it won in the last election, while its partners in the coalition of some two dozen parties known as I.N.D.I.A. now collectively control 234.
The BJP’s losses are important. India, of course, is a Hindu majority nation, but considering 36 percent of the national vote was cast in favor of the BJP, its Hindu nationalist ideology has clearly lost some of its resonance. The party lost voters despite Modi, just months ago, inaugurating a major and controversial temple timed to animate his party’s appeal ahead of the vote. Still, even in its heyday the BJP’s popularity was largely centered in the “Hindi belt” of central and northern India – and it could not even retain support there. In the two states with the most seats in parliament – Uttar Pradesh (80) in the north and Maharashtra (48) in the west – the BJP lost pretty badly. In Uttar Pradesh, a former BJP stronghold, the party lost nearly half its seats, slipping from 62 to 33. In Maharashtra, where the financial hub of Mumbai resides, it fell from 23 to 9 seats.
The apparent waning of its ideological appeal aside, the BJP lost so much ground because India’s otherwise phenomenal economic growth failed to trickle down to average Indian citizens. Inflation and unemployment generated widespread anxiety despite the fact that India’s economy has enjoyed an annual growth rate of 8 percent. This growth has actually led to great economic disparity: On one side are the billionaire elites and a growing middle class, which has attracted a legion of international firms to bring their business to India, and on the other are half a billion people nearing or falling below the poverty line of $3.65 per day.
The Struggle for Inclusive Growth
Until three weeks ago, Modi had successfully balanced these two realities. To the outside world, he was a leader with a large mandate who could steer the country toward the reforms that would nurture greater investment, profit and growth. This explains why in the lead-up to the election he and the BJP were expected to emerge even stronger. The elections have placed a damper on those expectations, given that now the BJP must rely on allies in the face of an energized opposition. The new balance of power in parliament creates the kind of political uncertainty that could discourage foreign companies and investors who have been eyeing India as a potential alternative to doing business in China. In fact, since India embraced market reforms in the 1990s, the biggest concern to foreign business has been that the country, with its myriad political stakeholders at the national and regional levels, is too complex to deal with. The rise of the Modi-led BJP was seen as a solution of sorts to that problem. Its religious nationalist ideology was seen as problematic, but the hope was that the party would find ways to balance between its economic imperatives and its ideational compulsions.
What this election has done is underscore the serious limits to which ideology can translate into political capital for the BJP. Many voters have been deeply concerned about the toxicity of the party’s religious nationalism and its implications for stability and security in the country for some time. More important, however, they have shown that bread and butter issues matter more to them than ideology. Though still the strongest political force in Indian politics, the BJP will now need to act in a way so as to prevent further weakening of its position, which necessitates tempering the emphasis on ideology, while holding on to its base, which requires the opposite.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
The BJP’s hold on power over the past two election cycles seems to have been an exception to the rule of coalition governments. A return to that past means that domestic political economic issues will constrain India’s desire to play major league geopolitics.
However, amidst these challenges lie opportunities. The 2024 elections have ushered in a new era of political consciousness among Indian citizens. They have demonstrated that democracy in India is alive and well, with the power to hold leaders accountable. The increased support for opposition parties signals a growing demand for inclusivity, economic equity, and a focus on issues that directly impact the everyday lives of Indians.
For the BJP, this shift represents a chance to reassess its priorities and strategies. It must navigate the delicate balance between its ideological roots and the pragmatic needs of a diverse and rapidly evolving nation. This could mean a pivot towards policies that prioritize job creation, social welfare, and sustainable development, while also fostering a more inclusive and tolerant political discourse.
Furthermore, the rise of regional parties and alliances highlights the importance of decentralized governance and tailored approaches to address the unique challenges faced by different states and communities within India. Collaboration and cooperation across party lines will be essential in building consensus and driving meaningful progress on key issues such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability.
Internationally, India’s evolving political landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. While the uncertainties of coalition politics may raise concerns among foreign investors initially, a stable and inclusive government that addresses core economic concerns could ultimately strengthen India’s appeal as a global investment destination. Strategic diplomacy and engagement will be crucial in navigating geopolitical complexities and leveraging India’s position as a key player on the world stage.
What lies ahead
India’s watershed 2024 elections will definitely reshape India’s political landscape and set the stage for a new chapter in its journey. The decline of dominant ideologies and the emergence of a more diverse and dynamic political landscape no doubt reflects the evolving aspirations and priorities of the country’s electorate. As the dust settles and the new government takes charge, the focus must remain on inclusive growth, effective governance, and fostering unity amidst diversity.
By embracing a spirit of collaboration, innovation, and resilience, India can overcome its internal hurdles and emerge as a beacon of democracy, development, and diversity on the global stage. The journey ahead may be challenging, but it is also filled with promise and potential for a brighter, more inclusive future for all Indians.
